League Stage - 5 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan UEFA Europa League prediction

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus

Our model says: Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 AC Milan

The model makes it 33% Olympiakos Piraeus, 31% draw, 36% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.03, AC Milan 1.10.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Olympiakos Piraeus and AC Milan are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Olympiakos Piraeus's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and AC Milan's from 49 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 16 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus, 4 for AC Milan. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.

Key facts

  • Olympiakos Piraeus are 6th on 10 points from 4 games; AC Milan are 28th on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Rennes.
  • AC Milan have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Ferencvarosi TC.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 December 2018, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 3–1 AC Milan.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan

44%
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Olympiakos Piraeus win Draw AC Milan win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–013%
  3. 0–112%
  4. 1–012%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–27%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Olympiakos Piraeus first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

AC Milan at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan

Olympiakos Piraeus

UEFA Europa League

  • D0-0away to Rennes4 November 2026
  • W1-0Sparta Praha22 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Marseille15 October 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia16 September 2026

AC Milan

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-2Ferencvarosi TC5 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Bournemouth22 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Red Bull Salzburg15 October 2026
  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026

What these results say

  • Olympiakos Piraeus went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Olympiakos Piraeus431041+310
28AC Milan410347-33

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan

  • 13 December 2018Olympiakos Piraeus 3–1 AC MilanUEFA Europa League
  • 4 October 2018AC Milan 3–1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and AC Milan

Olympiakos Piraeus

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Cissè30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olympiakos Piraeus (6th, with AC Milan 28th), while our numbers lean to AC Milan. AC Milan rate 1.32 in attack and 0.79 in defence, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.01 and 0.69 (lower is better in defence), so AC Milan have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Olympiakos Piraeus AC Milan
1.01 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.32
0.69 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.79
1.03 Model expected goals (this match) 1.10

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.10 for AC Milan. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.79 for AC Milan.

Olympiakos Piraeus carry a model rating of 7.06 against 7.11 for AC Milan. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for AC Milan to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AC Milan to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings add 3 points and AC Milan's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings31%+3
  5. AC Milan's ratings36%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Olympiakos PiraeusAC Milan
10Matches11
7W 2D 1LRecord7W 3D 1L
16 1.6 per gameGoals scored23 2.1 per game
5 0.5 per gameGoals conceded13 1.2 per game
6 of 10Clean sheets3 of 11
1 of 10Failed to score0 of 11
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
21 2.1 per gameYellow cards21 1.9 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape3-4-2-1 8×

Olympiakos Piraeus at home · AC Milan away

5Played6
3W 1D 1LRecord3W 3D 0L
8–2Goals for – against10–6
3 of 5Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, this season — Olympiakos Piraeus in the Super League 1, AC Milan in the Serie A; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Olympiakos Piraeus 10 in the Super League 1, AC Milan 11 in the Serie A.

Olympiakos Piraeus scored 015333
AC Milan conceded 211036

Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); AC Milan have let in 1 there.

AC Milan scored 6322100
Olympiakos Piraeus conceded 000022

AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • at Aris Thessalonikis29 Nov · Super League 1win 51%
  • vs AEK Athens FC5 Dec · Super League 1win 36%
  • at Celje10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
  • at Atromitos13 Dec · Super League 1win 50%

AC Milan

  • at Cagliari30 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
  • vs Parma6 Dec · Serie Awin 57%
  • vs Sunderland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 63%
  • at Napoli13 Dec · Serie Awin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.