Juventus
vs
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Juventus 2–0 Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 64% Juventus, 23% draw, 13% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Juventus 2.03, Omonia Nicosia 0.66.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Juventus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Juventus's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Omonia Nicosia's from 45 Cypriot First Division matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 14 matches for Juventus, 23 for Omonia Nicosia. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Juventus are 5th on 10 points from 4 games; Omonia Nicosia are 18th on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Juventus are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to AZ Alkmaar.
- Omonia Nicosia have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to NEC Nijmegen.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventus vs Omonia Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juventus vs Omonia Nicosia
Juventus
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to AZ Alkmaar5 November 2026
- D2-2Rennes22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo15 October 2026
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League
- L1-3away to NEC Nijmegen5 November 2026
- L1-4Benfica22 October 2026
- W3-0away to Celje15 October 2026
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
What these results say
- Juventus went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Juventus scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Juventus had three goals or more.
- Omonia Nicosia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Omonia Nicosia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Juventus and Omonia Nicosia
Juventus
GoalsAssists
- R. Kolo Muani32
- N. Woltemade32
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Juventus against 0.66 for Omonia Nicosia. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.77 for Omonia Nicosia.
How the model reaches 64% for Juventus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Juventus to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Juventus's ratings add 13 points and Omonia Nicosia's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Juventus's ratings54%+13
- Omonia Nicosia's ratings64%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Juventus's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Omonia Nicosia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Juventus at home · Omonia Nicosia away
League matches only, this season — Juventus in the Serie A, Omonia Nicosia in the 1. Division; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Juventus 11 in the Serie A, Omonia Nicosia 9 in the 1. Division.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Omonia Nicosia have let in 0 there.
Omonia Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Juventus have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Juventus
- at Como29 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Udinese6 Dec · Serie Awin 58%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- vs Monza14 Dec · Serie Awin 60%
Omonia Nicosia
- at Nea Salamis30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
- vs Pafos3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 56%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 60%
- vs Celtic10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.