League Stage - 5 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League prediction

Besiktas Park, Istanbul

Our model says: Beşiktaş 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

The model makes it 59% Beşiktaş, 25% draw, 16% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.92, Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.76.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Beşiktaş are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Beşiktaş's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Hapoel Beer Sheva's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 16 matches for Beşiktaş, 12 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.

Key facts

  • Beşiktaş are 8th on 7 points from 4 games; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 33rd on 1 point from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • Beşiktaş have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Celtic.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to OFI.
  • Last 2 meetings: Beşiktaş 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 February 2017, ended Beşiktaş 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

46%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Beşiktaş win Draw Hapoel Beer Sheva win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 2–013%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Beşiktaş first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Beşiktaş at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Beşiktaş

UEFA Europa League

  • L2-3away to Celtic5 November 2026
  • D2-2Crystal Palace22 October 2026
  • W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim15 October 2026
  • W4-1Marseille17 September 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-2OFI5 November 2026
  • L0-4away to Union St. Gilloise22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to AZ Alkmaar15 October 2026
  • D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026

What these results say

  • Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Beşiktaş conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Beşiktaş4211118+37
33Hapoel Beer Sheva401318-71

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • 23 February 2017Beşiktaş 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League
  • 16 February 2017Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–3 BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Hapoel Beer Sheva

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • J. Olaitan23
  • Oh Hyeon-Gyu21

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Beşiktaş Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.09 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.89
0.94 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.3
1.92 Model expected goals (this match) 0.76

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 0.76 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.3 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.

How the model reaches 59% for Beşiktaş to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Beşiktaş to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Beşiktaş's ratings add 10 points and Hapoel Beer Sheva's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 59%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Beşiktaş's ratings52%+10
  5. Hapoel Beer Sheva's ratings59%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BeşiktaşHapoel Beer Sheva
11Matches10
7W 1D 3LRecord7W 1D 2L
23 2.1 per gameGoals scored22 2.2 per game
12 1.1 per gameGoals conceded13 1.3 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets3 of 10
2 of 11Failed to score1 of 10
3 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
25 2.3 per gameYellow cards34 3.4 per game
0Red cards1
4-1-4-1 11×Usual shape4-3-3 8×

Beşiktaş at home · Hapoel Beer Sheva away

6Played5
6W 0D 0LRecord5W 0D 0L
17–3Goals for – against16–5
4 of 6Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, this season — Beşiktaş in the Süper Lig, Hapoel Beer Sheva in the Ligat Ha'al; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Beşiktaş 11 in the Süper Lig, Hapoel Beer Sheva 10 in the Ligat Ha'al.

Beşiktaş scored 164335
Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded 112215

Beşiktaş score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Hapoel Beer Sheva have let in 1 there.

Hapoel Beer Sheva scored 120756
Beşiktaş conceded 140323

Hapoel Beer Sheva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Beşiktaş have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Beşiktaş

  • vs Galatasaray30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 39%
  • vs Samsunspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 70%
  • at Bayer Leverkusen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
  • at Gaziantep FK14 Dec · Süper Ligwin 58%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • at Maccabi Netanya28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 45%
  • vs Bnei Sakhnin1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 60%
  • at Beitar Jerusalem5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
  • vs Juventus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 23%
  • at Hapoel Haifa12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 59%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.