Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Zagreb 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 20% Dinamo Zagreb, 24% draw, 56% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.02, Bayer Leverkusen 2.06.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Dinamo Zagreb's rating is built from 48 Croatian HNL matches and Bayer Leverkusen's from 43 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 20 matches for Dinamo Zagreb, 16 for Bayer Leverkusen. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Dinamo Zagreb are 9th on 7 points from 4 games; Bayer Leverkusen are 7th on 9 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Sunderland.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Marseille.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen
Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Europa League
- W2-0away to Sunderland5 November 2026
- L2-4NEC Nijmegen22 October 2026
- W1-0Anderlecht15 October 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
- L0-1Marseille5 November 2026
- W2-0away to OFI22 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lech Poznan15 October 2026
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had two goals or fewer.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and Bayer Leverkusen
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo40
Bayer Leverkusen
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 2.06 for Bayer Leverkusen. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/0.94 for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the model reaches 56% for Bayer Leverkusen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bayer Leverkusen to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Dinamo Zagreb's ratings add 13 points and Bayer Leverkusen's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- Dinamo Zagreb's ratings43%+13
- Bayer Leverkusen's ratings56%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dinamo Zagreb at home · Bayer Leverkusen away
League matches only, this season — Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL, Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Dinamo Zagreb 12 in the HNL, Bayer Leverkusen 9 in the Bundesliga.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Bayer Leverkusen have let in 1 there.
Bayer Leverkusen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Zagreb
- at HNK Gorica29 Nov · HNLwin 62%
- at HNK Rijeka3 Dec · HNLwin 47%
- vs NK Osijek6 Dec · HNLwin 68%
- at Rennes10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Bayer Leverkusen
- at Borussia Dortmund29 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach5 Dec · Bundesligawin 67%
- vs Beşiktaş10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
- at Werder Bremen13 Dec · Bundesligawin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.