Real Sociedad
vs
Lyon
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad 2–1 Lyon
The model makes it 45% Real Sociedad, 25% draw, 30% Lyon — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.86, Lyon 1.44.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Real Sociedad's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Lyon's from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Real Sociedad are 22nd on 1 point from 2 games; Lyon are 8th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win away to Malaga.
- Lyon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Nice.
- Last 2 meetings: Real Sociedad 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 August 2013, ended Real Sociedad 2–0 Lyon.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 45% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Real Sociedad
- D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise15 October 2026
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
Lyon
- W3-2Crystal Palace15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Lyon
- 28 August 2013Real Sociedad 2–0 LyonUEFA Champions League
- 20 August 2013Lyon 0–2 Real SociedadUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Lyon
Real Sociedad
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- Keito Nakamura12
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Sociedad carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.96 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.44 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad rate 1.35 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.03 and 0.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lyon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.44 for Lyon. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1.35/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.83 for Lyon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Sociedad at home · Lyon away
League matches only, this season — Real Sociedad in the La Liga, Lyon in the Ligue 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Real Sociedad 9 in the La Liga, Lyon 7 in the Ligue 1.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lyon have let in 1 there.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad
- vs Rayo Vallecano8 Nov · La Ligawin 53%
- at Racing Santander22 Nov · La Ligawin 51%
Lyon
- at Stade Brestois 298 Nov · Ligue 1win 41%
- at Lille21 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.