League Stage - 4 · 5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League prediction

Milan

Our model says: AC Milan 2–0 Ferencvarosi TC

The model makes it 67% AC Milan, 21% draw, 12% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).

Expected goals: AC Milan 2.29, Ferencvarosi TC 0.71.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.

One-sided: AC Milan are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. AC Milan's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Ferencvarosi TC's from 42 Hungarian NB I matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.

Key facts

  • AC Milan are 16th on 3 points from 2 games; Ferencvarosi TC are 7th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Atalanta.
  • Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kisvarda FC.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

46%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AC Milan win Draw Ferencvarosi TC win
  1. 2–013%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 3–010%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read AC Milan first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 35%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Milan at 67% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Form going into AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

AC Milan

  • W4-0away to Red Bull Salzburg15 October 2026
  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026

Ferencvarosi TC

  • W2-1Plzen15 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16AC Milan210142+23
7Ferencvarosi TC220052+36

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Ferencvarosi TC

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Cissè30

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Zachariassen32
  • L. Joseph20
  • B. Yusuf12

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

AC Milan carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.67 for Ferencvarosi TC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 2.29 goals for AC Milan and 0.71 for Ferencvarosi TC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

AC Milan rate 1.27 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.76 and 1.09.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ferencvarosi TC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for AC Milan against 0.71 for Ferencvarosi TC. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.27/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.09 for Ferencvarosi TC.

Season stats

AC MilanFerencvarosi TC
7Matches9
4W 3D 0LRecord3W 5D 1L
14 2.0 per gameGoals scored13 1.4 per game
7 1.0 per gameGoals conceded10 1.1 per game
2 of 7Clean sheets3 of 9
0 of 7Failed to score1 of 9
1 of 2Penalties scored0 of 2
13 1.9 per gameYellow cards16 1.8 per game
3-4-2-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

AC Milan at home · Ferencvarosi TC away

3Played6
3W 0D 0LRecord3W 2D 1L
8–2Goals for – against10–7
2 of 3Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, this season — AC Milan in the Serie A, Ferencvarosi TC in the NB I. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: AC Milan 7 in the Serie A, Ferencvarosi TC 9 in the NB I.

AC Milan scored 111190
Ferencvarosi TC conceded 113401

AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 0 there.

Ferencvarosi TC scored 033250
AC Milan conceded 101024

Ferencvarosi TC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); AC Milan have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

AC Milan

  • at Genoa8 Nov · Serie Awin 52%

Ferencvarosi TC

  • at Vasas7 Nov · NB Iwin 39%
  • vs Gyori ETO FC21 Nov · NB Iwin 41%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.