Benfica
vs
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Benfica 2–1 Lech Poznan
The model makes it 63% Benfica, 20% draw, 17% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Benfica 2.63, Lech Poznan 1.16.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
Edge to Benfica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Benfica's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Lech Poznan's from 44 Ekstraklasa matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Benfica are 3rd on 6 points from 2 games; Lech Poznan are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitória SC.
- Lech Poznan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Korona Kielce.
- Last 2 meetings: Benfica 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 December 2020, ended Benfica 4–0 Lech Poznan.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 63% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Benfica
- W4-1Celtic15 October 2026
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
Lech Poznan
- L0-4Bayer Leverkusen15 October 2026
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Lech Poznan
- 3 December 2020Benfica 4–0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
- 22 October 2020Lech Poznan 2–4 BenficaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Benfica and Lech Poznan
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- J. Durán20
Lech Poznan
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Benfica carry a model rating of 7.23 against 6.97 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for Benfica and 1.16 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica rate 1.62 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 1.24 and 0.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Benfica against 1.16 for Lech Poznan. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/0.98 for Lech Poznan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benfica at home · Lech Poznan away
League matches only, this season — Benfica in the Primeira Liga, Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Benfica 8 in the Primeira Liga, Lech Poznan 10 in the Ekstraklasa.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 2 there.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Benfica have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Benfica
- at Estrela8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 66%
- at Plzen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Lech Poznan
- vs Zaglebie Lubin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 62%
- at GKS Katowice21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.