League Stage - 5 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

OFI vs Anderlecht UEFA Europa League prediction

Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion

Our model says: OFI 0–1 Anderlecht

The model makes it 35% OFI, 29% draw, 36% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: OFI 1.21, Anderlecht 1.23.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: OFI and Anderlecht are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. OFI's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and Anderlecht's from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 6 matches for OFI, 14 for Anderlecht. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.

Key facts

  • OFI are 16th on 6 points from 4 games; Anderlecht are 15th on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • OFI have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hapoel Beer Sheva.
  • Anderlecht have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Red Bull Salzburg.
  • Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 3 December 2022, ended OFI 1–1 Anderlecht.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: OFI vs Anderlecht

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

OFI win Draw Anderlecht win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–010%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read OFI first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Anderlecht at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into OFI vs Anderlecht

OFI

UEFA Europa League

  • W2-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva5 November 2026
  • L0-2Bayer Leverkusen22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Rennes15 October 2026
  • W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026

Anderlecht

UEFA Europa League

  • W2-0Red Bull Salzburg5 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Jagiellonia22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb15 October 2026
  • L1-2Lyon16 September 2026

What these results say

  • OFI scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for OFI had two goals or fewer.
  • Anderlecht scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16OFI420254+16
15Anderlecht420263+36

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: OFI vs Anderlecht

  • 3 December 2022OFI 1–1 AnderlechtFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 July 2021Anderlecht 1–1 OFIFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

OFI Anderlecht
0.79 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94
1.31 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.98
1.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.23

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for OFI against 1.23 for Anderlecht. OFI's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.98 for Anderlecht.

How the model reaches 36% for Anderlecht to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Anderlecht to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, OFI's ratings add 3 points and Anderlecht's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. OFI's ratings32%+3
  4. Anderlecht's ratings36%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

OFIAnderlecht
10Matches11
5W 2D 3LRecord6W 2D 3L
14 1.4 per gameGoals scored14 1.3 per game
12 1.2 per gameGoals conceded12 1.1 per game
5 of 10Clean sheets4 of 11
2 of 10Failed to score4 of 11
2 of 2Penalties scored–
20 2.0 per gameYellow cards28 2.5 per game
1Red cards0
3-4-2-1 9×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

OFI at home · Anderlecht away

5Played6
3W 2D 0LRecord2W 1D 3L
8–3Goals for – against4–10
3 of 5Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, this season — OFI in the Super League 1, Anderlecht in the Jupiler Pro League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: OFI 10 in the Super League 1, Anderlecht 11 in the Jupiler Pro League.

OFI scored 023125
Anderlecht conceded 303114

OFI score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Anderlecht have let in 4 there.

Anderlecht scored 006413
OFI conceded 321214

Anderlecht score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); OFI have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

OFI

  • vs Levadiakos29 Nov · Super League 1win 44%
  • vs Iraklis 19086 Dec · Super League 1win 42%
  • at Benfica10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 7%
  • at Kifisia14 Dec · Super League 1win 33%

Anderlecht

  • at Antwerp29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
  • vs 1899 Hoffenheim10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
  • vs Charleroi13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 40%
  • at Standard Liege20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.