Fixtures & Predictions
League Two predictions
33 matches ahead, from 3 October to 17 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Grimsby, 53% against Shrewsbury. 12 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Saturday 3 October — 9 matches
- 11:30 UTC Chesterfield vs Tranmere — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00.
- 14:00 UTC Rochdale vs Swindon Town — model 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.45 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Gillingham vs Newport County — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13.
- 14:00 UTC Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham — model 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.70 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Crewe vs Bristol Rovers — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03.
- 14:00 UTC Exeter City vs Rotherham — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45.
- 14:00 UTC Grimsby vs Shrewsbury — model 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.85 · 4.76.
- 14:00 UTC Barnet vs York — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03.
- 14:00 UTC Salford City vs Fleetwood Town — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45.
Saturday 10 October — 12 matches
- 11:30 UTC Oldham vs Accrington Stanley — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57.
- 11:30 UTC Swindon Town vs Crewe — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Rotherham vs Gillingham — model 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.45 · 3.45.
- 14:00 UTC Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — model 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.70 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Fleetwood Town vs Walsall — model 36% / 31% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.23 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Port Vale vs Grimsby — model 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.33 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50.
- 14:00 UTC Crawley Town vs Chesterfield — model 28% / 30% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.33 · 2.38.
- 14:00 UTC Newport County vs Colchester — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Cheltenham vs Salford City — model 37% / 28% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.57 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Tranmere vs Rochdale — model 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.45 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC York vs Northampton — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85.
Saturday 17 October — 12 matches
- 11:30 UTC Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham — model 37% / 31% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.23 · 3.13.
- 11:30 UTC Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers — model 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.45 · 2.44.
- 14:00 UTC Oldham vs Cheltenham — model 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.70 · 3.13.
- 14:00 UTC Port Vale vs Chesterfield — model 36% / 31% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.23 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Swindon Town vs Walsall — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham — model 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.45 · 3.03.
- 14:00 UTC Colchester vs Exeter City — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Crewe vs Rochdale — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57.
- 14:00 UTC Grimsby vs Northampton — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85.
- 14:00 UTC Newport County vs York — model 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.70 · 2.33.
- 14:00 UTC Tranmere vs Barnet — model 29% / 27% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 3.70 · 2.27.
- 14:00 UTC Salford City vs Crawley Town — model 49% / 28% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.57 · 4.35.
Last round: the model's hits and misses
26 September: the model called the result of 2 of 10 matches.
- Bristol Rovers 1–0 Exeter City — the model said 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
- Cheltenham 2–1 Chesterfield — the model said 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Fleetwood Town 1–2 Rochdale — the model said 44% / 30% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Newport County 2–1 Grimsby — the model said 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Rotherham 1–1 Crewe — the model said 37% / 31% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Shrewsbury 2–2 Colchester — the model said 30% / 31% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- Swindon Town 1–1 Accrington Stanley — the model said 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
- Tranmere 1–1 Walsall — the model said 33% / 30% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- York 3–0 Gillingham — the model said 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
- Oldham 1–4 Salford City — the model said 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
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