Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction

Vale Park, Stoke on Trent

Our model says: Port Vale 0–1 Accrington Stanley

The model makes it 30% Port Vale, 32% draw, 38% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Port Vale 0.92, Accrington Stanley 1.12.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

Edge to Accrington Stanley: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Port Vale are 23rd on 12 points from 11 games; Accrington Stanley are 9th on 18 points from 13 games — League Two.
  • Port Vale have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to York.
  • Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-0 win away to Rochdale.
  • Last 6 meetings: Port Vale 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 October 2025, ended Accrington Stanley 0–2 Port Vale.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley

41%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Port Vale win Draw Accrington Stanley win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–114%
  3. 0–014%
  4. 1–011%
  5. 0–28%
  6. 1–28%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Port Vale first; the other scorelines share the remaining 25%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Accrington Stanley at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley

Port Vale

League Two

  • L0-2away to York24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026
  • W1-0Grimsby10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Walsall19 September 2026

Accrington Stanley

League Two

  • W5-0away to Rochdale24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to York20 October 2026
  • W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Oldham10 October 2026
  • W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
  • Accrington Stanley went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Accrington Stanley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Port Vale11335612-612
9Accrington Stanley134632216+618

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley

  • 7 October 2025Accrington Stanley 0–2 Port ValeEFL Trophy
  • 1 February 2025Port Vale 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 21 September 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 7 April 2023Accrington Stanley 3–0 Port ValeLeague One
  • 7 February 2023Port Vale 1–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
  • 6 November 2021Port Vale 5–1 Accrington StanleyFA Cup

Leading scorers: Port Vale and Accrington Stanley

Port Vale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Port Vale carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.18 for Accrington Stanley.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Port Vale and 1.12 for Accrington Stanley.

Port Vale rate 0.32 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Accrington Stanley rate 0.52 and 1.97.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Port Vale a 0.1% chance of the title and Accrington Stanley 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Accrington Stanley the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Port Vale against 1.12 for Accrington Stanley. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.32/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.97 for Accrington Stanley.

How the model reaches 38% for Accrington Stanley to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Accrington Stanley to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Port Vale's ratings add 3 points and Accrington Stanley's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level30%−1
  4. Port Vale's ratings33%+3
  5. Accrington Stanley's ratings38%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Port ValeAccrington Stanley
11Matches13
3W 3D 5LRecord4W 6D 3L
6 0.5 per gameGoals scored22 1.7 per game
12 1.1 per gameGoals conceded16 1.2 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets4 of 13
5 of 11Failed to score3 of 13
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
22 2.0 per gameYellow cards37 2.8 per game
0Red cards1
3-5-2 5×Usual shape3-4-1-2 8×

Port Vale at home · Accrington Stanley away

5Played7
3W 2D 0LRecord1W 3D 3L
4–1Goals for – against10–9
4 of 5Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Port Vale 11, Accrington Stanley 13.

Port Vale scored 112020
Accrington Stanley conceded 323312
Accrington Stanley scored 634542
Port Vale conceded 102342

Accrington Stanley score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Port Vale have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Port Vale

  • at Barnet21 Nov · League Twowin 18%
  • vs Northampton24 Nov · League Twowin 30%
  • vs Newport County28 Nov · League Twowin 33%
  • at Crawley Town1 Dec · League Twowin 33%

Accrington Stanley

  • vs Salford City21 Nov · League Twowin 36%
  • at Fleetwood Town28 Nov · League Twowin 35%
  • vs Crewe1 Dec · League Twowin 45%
  • at Bristol Rovers12 Dec · League Twowin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.