Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Fleetwood Town vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood

Our model says: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Accrington Stanley

The model makes it 40% Fleetwood Town, 28% draw, 32% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.45, Accrington Stanley 1.22.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Fleetwood Town are 11th on 20 points from 15 games; Accrington Stanley are 13th on 19 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Fleetwood Town have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Tranmere.
  • Accrington Stanley have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Port Vale.
  • Last 6 meetings: Fleetwood Town 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Accrington Stanley 1–2 Fleetwood Town.

More League Two predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Accrington Stanley

54%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Fleetwood Town win Draw Accrington Stanley win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Fleetwood Town first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fleetwood Town at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Accrington Stanley

Fleetwood Town

League Two

  • W1-0Tranmere14 November 2026
  • W3-1Bristol Rovers31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
  • W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026

Accrington Stanley

League Two

  • L2-4away to Port Vale14 November 2026
  • D1-1Northampton31 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Rochdale24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to York20 October 2026
  • W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fleetwood Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Accrington Stanley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Accrington Stanley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Accrington Stanley.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Fleetwood Town155551918+120
13Accrington Stanley154742521+419

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Fleetwood Town

Chance to finish in the top three · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 4%
Defeat 3%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Accrington Stanley

  • 11 April 2026Accrington Stanley 1–2 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • 25 October 2025Fleetwood Town 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 2 September 2025Fleetwood Town 2–2 Accrington StanleyEFL Trophy
  • 1 April 2025Accrington Stanley 1–4 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • 16 December 2024Fleetwood Town 1–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 15 April 2023Accrington Stanley 2–5 Fleetwood TownLeague One

Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Accrington Stanley

Fleetwood Town

GoalsAssists

  • R. Coughlan51

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 0.6% chance of the title and Accrington Stanley 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Fleetwood Town v Accrington Stanley has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Fleetwood Town's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Fleetwood Town win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Accrington Stanley win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Fleetwood Town Accrington Stanley
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
1.93 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.14
1.45 Model expected goals (this match) 1.22

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.22 for Accrington Stanley. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.14 for Accrington Stanley.

Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.14 for Accrington Stanley. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Fleetwood Town to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fleetwood Town to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Fleetwood Town's ratings take away 1 point and Accrington Stanley's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Fleetwood Town's ratings40%−1
  4. Accrington Stanley's ratings40%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Fleetwood TownAccrington Stanley
15Matches15
5W 5D 5LRecord4W 7D 4L
19 1.3 per gameGoals scored25 1.7 per game
18 1.2 per gameGoals conceded21 1.4 per game
5 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
2 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
35 2.3 per gameYellow cards38 2.5 per game
0Red cards1
3-1-4-2 13×Usual shape3-4-1-2 10×

Fleetwood Town at home · Accrington Stanley away

8Played8
4W 3D 1LRecord1W 3D 4L
11–5Goals for – against12–13
4 of 8Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Fleetwood Town 15, Accrington Stanley 15.

Fleetwood Town scored 124355
Accrington Stanley conceded 332422
Accrington Stanley scored 832844
Fleetwood Town conceded 314243

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Fleetwood Town

  • at Northampton1 Dec · League Twowin 30%
  • vs Swindon Town12 Dec · League Twowin 43%
  • at Colchester19 Dec · League Twowin 32%
  • vs Crewe26 Dec · League Twowin 41%

Accrington Stanley

  • vs Crewe1 Dec · League Twowin 43%
  • at Bristol Rovers12 Dec · League Twowin 37%
  • vs Chesterfield19 Dec · League Twowin 37%
  • at Tranmere26 Dec · League Twowin 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.