Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Northampton vs Rochdale League Two prediction

Sixfields Stadium, Northampton

Our model says: Northampton 1–0 Rochdale

The model makes it 46% Northampton, 30% draw, 24% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Northampton 1.38, Rochdale 0.85.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Northampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Northampton's rating is built from 13 League Two matches and Rochdale's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.

Key facts

  • Northampton are 21st on 14 points from 13 games; Rochdale are 20th on 15 points from 14 games — League Two.
  • Northampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Oldham.
  • Rochdale have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Port Vale.
  • Last 6 meetings: Rochdale 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2023, ended Rochdale 1–1 Northampton.

More League Two predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Northampton vs Rochdale

43%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Northampton win Draw Rochdale win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–113%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–19%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Northampton first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Northampton at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Northampton vs Rochdale

Northampton

League Two

  • L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
  • W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026

Rochdale

League Two

  • L2-4away to Port Vale31 October 2026
  • L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
  • D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Tranmere10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
  • Rochdale did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Rochdale conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rochdale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Northampton13355910-114
20Rochdale144371726-915

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Northampton

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today

Win 6%
Draw 9%
Defeat 10%

Rochdale

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 35% today

Win 27%
Draw 35%
Defeat 38%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Northampton vs Rochdale

  • 11 February 2023Rochdale 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 17 September 2022Northampton 3–0 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 26 February 2022Rochdale 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 21 August 2021Northampton 1–3 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 23 February 2021Northampton 0–0 RochdaleLeague One
  • 24 November 2020Rochdale 1–1 NorthamptonLeague One

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rochdale (20th, with Northampton 21st), while our numbers lean to Northampton. Northampton rate 0.33 in attack and 1.49 in defence, Rochdale 0.47 and 2.84 (lower is better in defence), so Northampton have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Northampton a 0.1% chance of the title and Rochdale 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Northampton Rochdale
0.33 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.47
1.49 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.84
1.38 Model expected goals (this match) 0.85

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Northampton the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Northampton against 0.85 for Rochdale. Northampton's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.84 for Rochdale.

Northampton carry a model rating of 6.16 against 5.96 for Rochdale.

How the model reaches 46% for Northampton to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Northampton to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Northampton's ratings change nothing and Rochdale's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level39%−2
  4. Northampton's ratings39%±0
  5. Rochdale's ratings46%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

NorthamptonRochdale
13Matches14
3W 5D 5LRecord4W 3D 7L
9 0.7 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
10 0.8 per gameGoals conceded26 1.9 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets4 of 14
6 of 13Failed to score4 of 14
–Penalties scored–
20 1.5 per gameYellow cards26 1.9 per game
1Red cards3
4-4-2 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Northampton at home · Rochdale away

7Played7
2W 2D 3LRecord1W 2D 4L
4–4Goals for – against7–13
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Northampton 13, Rochdale 14.

Northampton scored 203201
Rochdale conceded 535652

Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Rochdale have let in 5 there.

Rochdale scored 303216
Northampton conceded 302131

Rochdale score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Northampton have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Northampton

Rochdale

  • vs Barnet28 Nov · League Twowin 24%
  • at Cheltenham1 Dec · League Twowin 27%
  • at Exeter City12 Dec · League Twowin 20%
  • vs Bristol Rovers19 Dec · League Twowin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.