Bristol Rovers
vs
Tranmere
League Two prediction
Our model says: Bristol Rovers 1–0 Tranmere
The model makes it 41% Bristol Rovers, 28% draw, 31% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.47, Tranmere 1.20.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Bristol Rovers's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Tranmere's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Bristol Rovers are 18th on 16 points from 15 games; Tranmere are 15th on 19 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Bristol Rovers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Chesterfield.
- Tranmere have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Fleetwood Town.
- Last 6 meetings: Bristol Rovers 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Tranmere 1–2 Bristol Rovers.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
Bristol Rovers at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere
Bristol Rovers
League Two
- L0-2Chesterfield14 November 2026
- L1-3away to Fleetwood Town31 October 2026
- D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
- L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
Tranmere
League Two
- L0-1away to Fleetwood Town14 November 2026
- W3-1Cheltenham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bristol Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bristol Rovers
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 12% today
Tranmere
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 10% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere
- 18 April 2026Tranmere 1–2 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 18 October 2025Bristol Rovers 1–4 TranmereLeague Two
- 9 April 2022Tranmere 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 20 November 2021Bristol Rovers 2–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 11 February 2020Tranmere 0–0 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 20 August 2019Bristol Rovers 2–0 TranmereLeague One
Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Tranmere
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Tranmere
GoalsAssists
- D. Jones50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tranmere (15th, with Bristol Rovers 18th), while our numbers lean to Bristol Rovers. Bristol Rovers rate 0.45 in attack and 2.29 in defence, Tranmere 0.43 and 2.22 (lower is better in defence), so Bristol Rovers have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bristol Rovers a 0% chance of the title and Tranmere 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Bristol Rovers v Tranmere has moved
First published on 14 Nov at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Bristol Rovers's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Bristol Rovers win41%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Tranmere win31%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bristol Rovers the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bristol Rovers against 1.20 for Tranmere. Bristol Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.22 for Tranmere.
How the model reaches 41% for Bristol Rovers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bristol Rovers to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Bristol Rovers's ratings change nothing and Tranmere's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Bristol Rovers's ratings41%±0
- Tranmere's ratings41%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bristol Rovers at home · Tranmere away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Bristol Rovers 15, Tranmere 15.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Bristol Rovers have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bristol Rovers
- at Oldham1 Dec · League Twowin 27%
- vs Accrington Stanley12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- at Rochdale19 Dec · League Twowin 37%
- vs Walsall26 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Tranmere
- vs Salford City1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
- vs York12 Dec · League Twowin 33%
- at Swindon Town19 Dec · League Twowin 29%
- vs Accrington Stanley26 Dec · League Twowin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.