Crawley Town
vs
Fleetwood Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Crawley Town 0–1 Fleetwood Town
The model makes it 33% Crawley Town, 29% draw, 38% Fleetwood Town — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Crawley Town 1.17, Fleetwood Town 1.31.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Fleetwood Town: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Crawley Town's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Fleetwood Town's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.
Key facts
- Crawley Town are bottom on 9 points from 12 games; Fleetwood Town are 16th on 17 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Crawley Town have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Oldham.
- Fleetwood Town have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Bristol Rovers.
- Last 5 meetings: Fleetwood Town 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Fleetwood Town 1–0 Crawley Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
Has the model earned this number?
Fleetwood Town at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
Crawley Town
League Two
- W1-0away to Oldham31 October 2026
- D1-1Tranmere24 October 2026
- L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- W3-1Bristol Rovers31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
What these results say
- Crawley Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fleetwood Town.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Crawley Town
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 46% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
- 21 March 2026Fleetwood Town 1–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 8 November 2025Crawley Town 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 1 December 2019Crawley Town 1–2 Fleetwood TownFA Cup
- 24 January 2015Fleetwood Town 1–0 Crawley TownLeague One
- 13 September 2014Crawley Town 1–0 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Fleetwood Town
GoalsAssists
- R. Coughlan51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crawley Town a 0% chance of the title and Fleetwood Town 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Crawley Town against 1.31 for Fleetwood Town. Crawley Town's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.99 for Fleetwood Town.
How the model reaches 38% for Fleetwood Town to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fleetwood Town to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Crawley Town's ratings add 4 points and Fleetwood Town's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Crawley Town's ratings35%+4
- Fleetwood Town's ratings38%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Crawley Town at home · Fleetwood Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Crawley Town 12, Fleetwood Town 14.
Crawley Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Fleetwood Town have let in 4 there.
Fleetwood Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Crawley Town have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Crawley Town
- vs Barnet24 Nov · League Twowin 25%
- at Exeter City28 Nov · League Twowin 20%
- vs Port Vale1 Dec · League Twowin 34%
Fleetwood Town
- vs Accrington Stanley28 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- at Northampton1 Dec · League Twowin 30%
- vs Swindon Town12 Dec · League Twowin 40%
- at Colchester19 Dec · League Twowin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.