Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Swindon Town vs Chesterfield League Two prediction

County Ground, Swindon

Our model says: Swindon Town 1–2 Chesterfield

The model makes it 33% Swindon Town, 28% draw, 39% Chesterfield — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.31, Chesterfield 1.47.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Chesterfield: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Swindon Town's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Chesterfield's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Swindon Town are 16th on 19 points from 15 games; Chesterfield are 7th on 22 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Swindon Town have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Grimsby.
  • Chesterfield have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Bristol Rovers.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Swindon Town 1–2 Chesterfield.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Swindon Town vs Chesterfield

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Swindon Town win Draw Chesterfield win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–19%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Swindon Town first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Chesterfield at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Swindon Town vs Chesterfield

Swindon Town

League Two

  • L1-4Grimsby14 November 2026
  • W2-1Rotherham31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026

Chesterfield

League Two

  • W2-0away to Bristol Rovers14 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Newport County30 October 2026
  • W5-1Crewe24 October 2026
  • D1-1Colchester20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Swindon Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Swindon Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Swindon Town.
  • Chesterfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chesterfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Swindon Town155461621-519
7Chesterfield156452621+522

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Swindon Town

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 5% today

Win 4%
Draw 4%
Defeat 7%

Chesterfield

Chance to finish in the top three · 22% today

Win 27%
Draw 21%
Defeat 17%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Chesterfield

  • 2 May 2026Swindon Town 1–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 29 November 2025Chesterfield 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 22 February 2025Swindon Town 1–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 9 August 2024Chesterfield 1–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 24 February 2018Chesterfield 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 11 November 2017Swindon Town 2–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two

Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Chesterfield

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Chesterfield

GoalsAssists

  • L. Marsh61
  • L. Bonis52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.2% chance of the title and Chesterfield 4.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Swindon Town v Chesterfield has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Swindon Town's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Swindon Town win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Chesterfield win39%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Swindon Town Chesterfield
0.45 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57
2.12 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.98
1.31 Model expected goals (this match) 1.47

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.47 for Chesterfield. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.98 for Chesterfield.

Swindon Town carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.23 for Chesterfield.

How the model reaches 39% for Chesterfield to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chesterfield to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Swindon Town's ratings add 4 points and Chesterfield's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Swindon Town's ratings35%+4
  4. Chesterfield's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Swindon TownChesterfield
15Matches15
5W 4D 6LRecord6W 4D 5L
16 1.1 per gameGoals scored26 1.7 per game
21 1.4 per gameGoals conceded21 1.4 per game
2 of 15Clean sheets3 of 15
7 of 15Failed to score2 of 15
0 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
25 1.7 per gameYellow cards32 2.1 per game
3Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 15×

Swindon Town at home · Chesterfield away

8Played8
4W 2D 2LRecord3W 1D 4L
13–11Goals for – against10–12
0 of 8Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Swindon Town 15, Chesterfield 15.

Swindon Town scored 313314
Chesterfield conceded 245523

Swindon Town score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Chesterfield have let in 3 there.

Chesterfield scored 461615
Swindon Town conceded 332318

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Swindon Town

  • at Gillingham1 Dec · League Twowin 34%
  • at Fleetwood Town12 Dec · League Twowin 28%
  • vs Tranmere19 Dec · League Twowin 43%
  • at Shrewsbury26 Dec · League Twowin 34%

Chesterfield

  • vs Exeter City1 Dec · League Twowin 37%
  • vs Grimsby12 Dec · League Twowin 38%
  • at Accrington Stanley19 Dec · League Twowin 36%
  • vs Northampton26 Dec · League Twowin 43%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.