York
vs
Walsall
League Two prediction
Our model says: York 2–1 Walsall
The model makes it 40% York, 26% draw, 34% Walsall — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: York 1.64, Walsall 1.48.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. York's rating is built from 14 League Two matches and Walsall's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.
Key facts
- York are 7th on 20 points from 14 games; Walsall are 3rd on 22 points from 13 games — League Two.
- York have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to Grimsby.
- Walsall have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Colchester.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: York vs Walsall
Has the model earned this number?
York at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into York vs Walsall
York
League Two
- L2-5away to Grimsby31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet27 October 2026
- W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County17 October 2026
Walsall
League Two
- W3-1away to Colchester31 October 2026
- L2-4Salford City26 October 2026
- W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026
What these results say
- York scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- York failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- York conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Walsall scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Walsall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Walsall.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 20 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
York
Chance to finish in the top three · 17% today
Walsall
Chance to finish in the top three · 36% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: York and Walsall
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce64
- A. Newby61
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Walsall (third, with York seventh), while our numbers lean to York. York rate 0.59 in attack and 2.30 in defence, Walsall 0.53 and 1.89 (lower is better in defence), so York have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives York a 3.3% chance of the title and Walsall 8.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for York against 1.48 for Walsall. York's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.89 for Walsall.
How the model reaches 40% for York to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for York to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, York's ratings change nothing and Walsall's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- York's ratings42%±0
- Walsall's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
York at home · Walsall away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: York 14, Walsall 13.
York score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Walsall have let in 1 there.
Walsall score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); York have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
York
- at Colchester28 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- vs Shrewsbury1 Dec · League Twowin 52%
- at Tranmere12 Dec · League Twowin 39%
- vs Crawley Town19 Dec · League Twowin 54%
Walsall
- vs Northampton28 Nov · League Twowin 43%
- at Newport County1 Dec · League Twowin 37%
- at Rotherham12 Dec · League Twowin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.