Swindon Town
vs
Grimsby
League Two prediction
Our model says: Swindon Town 0–1 Grimsby
The model makes it 35% Swindon Town, 28% draw, 37% Grimsby — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.33, Grimsby 1.40.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Swindon Town and Grimsby are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Swindon Town's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Grimsby's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Swindon Town are 15th on 16 points from 13 games; Grimsby are 12th on 17 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Swindon Town are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Bristol Rovers.
- Grimsby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Gillingham.
- Last 6 meetings: Swindon Town 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Grimsby 4–0 Swindon Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swindon Town vs Grimsby
Has the model earned this number?
Grimsby at 37%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Swindon Town vs Grimsby
Swindon Town
League Two
- D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall17 October 2026
- L0-1Crewe10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
Grimsby
League Two
- W4-1away to Gillingham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
- L0-2Northampton17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale10 October 2026
- L1-2Shrewsbury3 October 2026
What these results say
- Swindon Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Swindon Town had two goals or fewer.
- Grimsby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Grimsby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Swindon Town | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Grimsby
- 25 April 2026Grimsby 4–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 22 November 2025Swindon Town 2–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 18 April 2025Grimsby 0–4 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 21 December 2024Swindon Town 3–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 20 April 2024Grimsby 2–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 30 September 2023Swindon Town 2–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Grimsby
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan81
Grimsby
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swindon Town carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.24 for Grimsby.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Swindon Town and 1.40 for Grimsby.
Swindon Town rate 0.46 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grimsby rate 0.58 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.3% chance of the title and Grimsby 5.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.40 for Grimsby. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.97 for Grimsby.
How the model reaches 37% for Grimsby to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Grimsby to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Swindon Town's ratings add 3 points and Grimsby's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Swindon Town's ratings34%+3
- Grimsby's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Swindon Town at home · Grimsby away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Swindon Town 13, Grimsby 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Swindon Town
- at Newport County21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Chesterfield28 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- at Gillingham1 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- at Fleetwood Town12 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Grimsby
- vs Rotherham21 Nov · League Twowin 58%
- at Crewe28 Nov · League Twowin 38%
- vs Colchester1 Dec · League Twowin 48%
- at Chesterfield12 Dec · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.