Salford City
vs
Gillingham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Salford City 2–0 Gillingham
The model makes it 56% Salford City, 24% draw, 20% Gillingham — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Salford City 2.00, Gillingham 0.99.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Salford City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Salford City's rating is built from 64 League Two matches and Gillingham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Salford City are top on 32 points from 15 games; Gillingham are 12th on 20 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Northampton.
- Gillingham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Colchester.
- Last 6 meetings: Gillingham 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Salford City 0–0 Gillingham.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Salford City vs Gillingham
Has the model earned this number?
Salford City at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Salford City vs Gillingham
Salford City
League Two
- D1-1Northampton14 November 2026
- W2-1Exeter City31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Walsall26 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
- W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026
Gillingham
League Two
- L0-2away to Colchester14 November 2026
- W2-1away to Shrewsbury31 October 2026
- L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
- D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026
What these results say
- Salford City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Salford City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Salford City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 32 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Salford City
Chance to finish in the top three · 65% today
Gillingham
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Gillingham
- 11 April 2026Salford City 0–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 25 October 2025Gillingham 1–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 5 April 2025Salford City 2–2 GillinghamLeague Two
- 7 December 2024Gillingham 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 2 March 2024Salford City 0–2 GillinghamLeague Two
- 18 November 2023Gillingham 3–1 Salford CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Gillingham
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- M. Langstaff51
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Salford City a 29% chance of the title and Gillingham 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Salford City against 0.99 for Gillingham. Salford City's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.39 for Gillingham.
How the model reaches 56% for Salford City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Salford City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Salford City's ratings add 7 points and Gillingham's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Salford City's ratings48%+7
- Gillingham's ratings56%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Salford City at home · Gillingham away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Salford City 15, Gillingham 15.
Salford City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gillingham have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Salford City
- at Tranmere1 Dec · League Twowin 44%
- vs Colchester12 Dec · League Twowin 50%
- at Crewe17 Dec · League Twowin 40%
- vs Grimsby26 Dec · League Twowin 41%
Gillingham
- vs Swindon Town1 Dec · League Twowin 38%
- at Oldham12 Dec · League Twowin 27%
- vs Cheltenham19 Dec · League Twowin 41%
- at Crawley Town26 Dec · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.