Tranmere
vs
Colchester
League Two prediction
Our model says: Tranmere 1–0 Colchester
The model makes it 39% Tranmere, 29% draw, 32% Colchester — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tranmere 1.34, Colchester 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Tranmere's rating is built from 60 League Two matches and Colchester's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.
Key facts
- Tranmere are 11th on 19 points from 14 games; Colchester are 23rd on 12 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Tranmere are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Cheltenham.
- Colchester have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Walsall.
- Last 6 meetings: Colchester 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Tranmere 0–1 Colchester.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tranmere vs Colchester
Has the model earned this number?
Tranmere at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tranmere vs Colchester
Tranmere
League Two
- W3-1Cheltenham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
- D1-1Rochdale10 October 2026
Colchester
League Two
- L1-3Walsall31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Northampton24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
- D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Newport County10 October 2026
What these results say
- Tranmere scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Tranmere.
- Colchester did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Colchester conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Colchester had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 19 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tranmere
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 6% today
Colchester
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 15% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Tranmere vs Colchester
- 6 April 2026Tranmere 0–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 2 August 2025Colchester 1–1 TranmereLeague Two
- 1 February 2025Tranmere 1–3 ColchesterLeague Two
- 21 September 2024Colchester 3–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 1 April 2024Tranmere 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 9 September 2023Colchester 2–0 TranmereLeague Two
Leading scorers: Tranmere and Colchester
Tranmere
GoalsAssists
- D. Jones50
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tranmere a 0.3% chance of the title and Colchester 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tranmere the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Tranmere against 1.15 for Colchester. Tranmere's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.02 for Colchester.
How the model reaches 39% for Tranmere to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tranmere to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Tranmere's ratings change nothing and Colchester's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Tranmere's ratings40%±0
- Colchester's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tranmere at home · Colchester away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Tranmere 14, Colchester 13.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Colchester have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tranmere
- at Bristol Rovers28 Nov · League Twowin 30%
- vs Salford City1 Dec · League Twowin 29%
- vs York12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
- at Swindon Town19 Dec · League Twowin 28%
Colchester
- vs York28 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- at Grimsby1 Dec · League Twowin 22%
- at Salford City12 Dec · League Twowin 21%
- vs Port Vale15 Dec · League Twowin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.