Gillingham
vs
Crewe
League Two prediction
Our model says: Gillingham 2–1 Crewe
The model makes it 38% Gillingham, 28% draw, 34% Crewe — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gillingham 1.45, Crewe 1.35.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Gillingham's rating is built from 60 League Two matches and Crewe's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.
Key facts
- Gillingham are 8th on 20 points from 14 games; Crewe are 4th on 22 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Gillingham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Shrewsbury.
- Crewe are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Barnet.
- Last 6 meetings: Crewe 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Crewe 1–0 Gillingham.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gillingham vs Crewe
Has the model earned this number?
Gillingham at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gillingham vs Crewe
Gillingham
League Two
- W2-1away to Shrewsbury31 October 2026
- L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
- D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Rotherham10 October 2026
Crewe
League Two
- D1-1Barnet31 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
- W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Swindon Town10 October 2026
What these results say
- Gillingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Gillingham.
- Crewe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crewe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 20 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gillingham
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 5% today
Crewe
Chance to finish in the top three · 10% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Crewe
- 14 February 2026Crewe 1–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 23 August 2025Gillingham 1–0 CreweLeague Two
- 15 February 2025Gillingham 0–0 CreweLeague Two
- 5 October 2024Crewe 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 29 March 2024Gillingham 0–0 CreweLeague Two
- 3 October 2023Crewe 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Gillingham and Crewe
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale61
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. Gibson52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Crewe (fourth, with Gillingham eighth), while our numbers lean to Gillingham. Gillingham rate 0.48 in attack and 2.36 in defence, Crewe 0.47 and 2.05 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gillingham a 0.5% chance of the title and Crewe 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gillingham the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Gillingham against 1.35 for Crewe. Gillingham's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.05 for Crewe.
How the model reaches 38% for Gillingham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gillingham to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Gillingham's ratings take away 1 point and Crewe's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Gillingham's ratings40%−1
- Crewe's ratings38%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gillingham at home · Crewe away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Gillingham 14, Crewe 14.
Crewe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Gillingham have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gillingham
- at Salford City28 Nov · League Twowin 21%
- vs Swindon Town1 Dec · League Twowin 38%
- at Oldham12 Dec · League Twowin 28%
- vs Cheltenham19 Dec · League Twowin 43%
Crewe
- vs Grimsby28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Accrington Stanley1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
- at Cheltenham12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
- vs Salford City17 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.