Shrewsbury
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Shrewsbury 0–1 Oldham
The model makes it 35% Shrewsbury, 28% draw, 37% Oldham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.30, Oldham 1.37.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Shrewsbury and Oldham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Shrewsbury's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Oldham's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Shrewsbury are 11th on 18 points from 13 games; Oldham are 20th on 12 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Shrewsbury are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Rotherham.
- Oldham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barnet.
- Last 6 meetings: Shrewsbury 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Shrewsbury 1–0 Oldham.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shrewsbury vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
Oldham at 37%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shrewsbury vs Oldham
Shrewsbury
League Two
- D3-3away to Rotherham24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Crawley Town20 October 2026
- W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026
- L0-1Exeter City10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Grimsby3 October 2026
Oldham
League Two
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
- W4-1Cheltenham17 October 2026
- D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
What these results say
- Shrewsbury scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shrewsbury conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 18 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Oldham
- 11 April 2026Shrewsbury 1–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 25 October 2025Oldham 2–2 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 3 August 2024Oldham 1–0 ShrewsburyFriendlies Clubs
- 23 January 2018Shrewsbury 2–1 OldhamEFL Trophy
- 1 January 2018Shrewsbury 1–0 OldhamLeague One
- 16 September 2017Oldham 1–2 ShrewsburyLeague One
Leading scorers: Shrewsbury and Oldham
Shrewsbury
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shrewsbury carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.14 for Oldham.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.37 for Oldham.
Shrewsbury rate 0.44 in attack and 2.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oldham rate 0.49 and 2.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shrewsbury, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shrewsbury a 0.2% chance of the title and Oldham 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shrewsbury against 1.37 for Oldham. Shrewsbury's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.02 for Oldham.
How the model reaches 37% for Oldham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oldham to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Shrewsbury's ratings add 3 points and Oldham's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Shrewsbury's ratings34%+3
- Oldham's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Shrewsbury at home · Oldham away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Shrewsbury 13, Oldham 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Shrewsbury
- at Chesterfield21 Nov · League Twowin 23%
- vs Cheltenham28 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- at York1 Dec · League Twowin 22%
- vs Port Vale12 Dec · League Twowin 39%
Oldham
- vs Exeter City21 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Rotherham28 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- vs Bristol Rovers1 Dec · League Twowin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.