Regular Season - 8 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Port Vale vs Northampton League Two prediction

Vale Park, Stoke on Trent

Our model says: Port Vale 0–0 Northampton

The model makes it 35% Port Vale, 36% draw, 29% Northampton — fair odds of 2.86, 2.78 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (21%).

Expected goals: Port Vale 0.85, Northampton 0.75.

Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%, under 2.5: 78%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Port Vale's rating is built from 12 League Two matches and Northampton's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.

Key facts

  • Port Vale are 19th on 15 points from 12 games; Northampton are 21st on 14 points from 13 games — League Two.
  • Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Rochdale.
  • Northampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Oldham.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2026, ended Northampton 0–1 Port Vale.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Port Vale vs Northampton

31%
Both teams to score
22%
Over 2.5 goals
78%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Port Vale win Draw Northampton win
  1. 0–021%
  2. 1–017%
  3. 0–114%
  4. 1–114%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 0–26%
  7. 2–15%

Scores read Port Vale first; the other scorelines share the remaining 16%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

the draw at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Port Vale vs Northampton

Port Vale

League Two

  • W4-2Rochdale31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to York24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026
  • W1-0Grimsby10 October 2026

Northampton

League Two

  • L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
  • W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Port Vale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Port Vale124351014-415
21Northampton13355910-114

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Northampton

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today

Win 5%
Draw 8%
Defeat 10%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Northampton

  • 24 February 2026Northampton 0–1 Port ValeLeague One
  • 4 October 2025Port Vale 0–0 NorthamptonLeague One
  • 1 April 2024Northampton 2–0 Port ValeLeague One
  • 16 September 2023Port Vale 1–0 NorthamptonLeague One
  • 12 February 2022Port Vale 0–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 7 August 2021Northampton 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Port Vale a 0.2% chance of the title and Northampton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Port Vale v Northampton has moved

First published on 23 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 35% / 36% / 29%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Port Vale win35%▼ −5
  2. Draw36%▲ +5
  3. Northampton win29%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Port Vale Northampton
0.39 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.33
1.86 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.49
0.85 Model expected goals (this match) 0.75

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives a draw the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Port Vale against 0.75 for Northampton. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.49 for Northampton.

Port Vale carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.16 for Northampton. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for a draw

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 28% for a draw. Then home advantage changes nothing, the level of the two sides adds 8 points, Port Vale's ratings take away 2 points and Northampton's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground28%
  2. Home advantage28%±0
  3. Both sides at this match's level36%+8
  4. Port Vale's ratings34%−2
  5. Northampton's ratings36%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Port ValeNorthampton
12Matches13
4W 3D 5LRecord3W 5D 5L
10 0.8 per gameGoals scored9 0.7 per game
14 1.2 per gameGoals conceded10 0.8 per game
4 of 12Clean sheets4 of 13
5 of 12Failed to score6 of 13
3 of 3Penalties scored–
24 2.0 per gameYellow cards20 1.5 per game
0Red cards1
3-5-2 6×Usual shape4-4-2 9×

Port Vale at home · Northampton away

6Played6
4W 2D 0LRecord1W 3D 2L
8–3Goals for – against5–6
4 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Port Vale 12, Northampton 13.

Port Vale scored 322021
Northampton conceded 302131

Port Vale score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Northampton have let in 3 there.

Northampton scored 203201
Port Vale conceded 102342

Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Port Vale have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Port Vale

  • vs Newport County28 Nov · League Twowin 38%
  • at Crawley Town1 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • at Shrewsbury12 Dec · League Twowin 33%

Northampton

  • at Walsall28 Nov · League Twowin 25%
  • vs Fleetwood Town1 Dec · League Twowin 36%
  • at Barnet12 Dec · League Twowin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.