Regular Season - 8 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Crawley Town vs Barnet League Two prediction

The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley

Our model says: Crawley Town 1–2 Barnet

The model makes it 25% Crawley Town, 25% draw, 50% Barnet — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Crawley Town 1.21, Barnet 1.91.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Barnet are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Crawley Town's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Barnet's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.

Key facts

  • Crawley Town are bottom on 9 points from 12 games; Barnet are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games — League Two.
  • Crawley Town have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Oldham.
  • Barnet are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Crewe.
  • Last 6 meetings: Crawley Town 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 March 2026, ended Crawley Town 1–1 Barnet.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Crawley Town vs Barnet

60%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Crawley Town win Draw Barnet win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–28%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–36%
  6. 2–16%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Crawley Town first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Barnet at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Crawley Town vs Barnet

Crawley Town

League Two

  • W1-0away to Oldham31 October 2026
  • D1-1Tranmere24 October 2026
  • L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
  • D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026

Barnet

League Two

  • D1-1away to Crewe31 October 2026
  • W3-1York27 October 2026
  • D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
  • L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Crawley Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Crawley Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Crawley Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Crawley Town122371321-89
2Barnet137512818+1026

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Crawley Town

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 46% today

Win 37%
Draw 47%
Defeat 49%

Barnet

Chance to finish in the top three · 64% today

Win 68%
Draw 62%
Defeat 58%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Barnet

  • 17 March 2026Crawley Town 1–1 BarnetLeague Two
  • 1 January 2026Barnet 2–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • 13 January 2018Crawley Town 2–0 BarnetLeague Two
  • 23 September 2017Barnet 1–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • 11 March 2017Barnet 2–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • 20 August 2016Crawley Town 1–1 BarnetLeague Two

Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Barnet

Crawley Town

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Barnet

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tshimanga104
  • C. Lakin63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crawley Town a 0% chance of the title and Barnet 28.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Crawley Town v Barnet has moved

First published on 23 Sep at 26% / 27% / 47% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 25% / 25% / 50%: the biggest move is Barnet's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Crawley Town win25%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Barnet win50%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Crawley Town Barnet
0.4 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67
2.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.06
1.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.91

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Crawley Town against 1.91 for Barnet. Crawley Town's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/2.06 for Barnet.

Crawley Town carry a model rating of 5.97 against 6.3 for Barnet.

How the model reaches 50% for Barnet to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Crawley Town's ratings add 8 points and Barnet's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%+1
  4. Crawley Town's ratings40%+8
  5. Barnet's ratings50%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Crawley TownBarnet
12Matches13
2W 3D 7LRecord7W 5D 1L
13 1.1 per gameGoals scored28 2.2 per game
21 1.8 per gameGoals conceded18 1.4 per game
1 of 12Clean sheets0 of 13
3 of 12Failed to score0 of 13
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
31 2.6 per gameYellow cards27 2.1 per game
2Red cards2
4-4-2 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Crawley Town at home · Barnet away

6Played6
0W 2D 4LRecord3W 3D 0L
6–12Goals for – against13–8
0 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Crawley Town 12, Barnet 13.

Crawley Town scored 310342
Barnet conceded 226133

Crawley Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Barnet have let in 3 there.

Barnet scored 3344212
Crawley Town conceded 145621

Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Crawley Town have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Crawley Town

  • at Exeter City28 Nov · League Twowin 20%
  • vs Port Vale1 Dec · League Twowin 34%

Barnet

  • at Rochdale28 Nov · League Twowin 53%
  • vs Rotherham1 Dec · League Twowin 63%
  • vs Northampton12 Dec · League Twowin 49%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.