League Two

1. Salford City — 31 points from 14 played (10 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 25 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
2. Barnet — 26 points from 13 played (7 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost), 28 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W L D W D.
3. Walsall — 22 points from 13 played (5 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost), 21 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D D W L W.
4. Crewe — 22 points from 14 played (5 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost), 17 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W W L L D.
5. Cheltenham — 21 points from 14 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 23 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L W W L.
6. Grimsby — 20 points from 14 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 24 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: L L D W W.
7. York — 20 points from 14 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 24 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D D W L L.
8. Gillingham — 20 points from 14 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 20 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W L D L W.
9. Accrington Stanley — 19 points from 14 played (4 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost), 23 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: D W D W D.
10. Chesterfield — 19 points from 14 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 24 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D L D W L.
11. Tranmere — 19 points from 14 played (4 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost), 19 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D L W D W.
12. Exeter City — 19 points from 14 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 11 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W D W W L.
13. Swindon Town — 19 points from 14 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L D W D W.
14. Newport County — 18 points from 14 played (4 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost), 20 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W D D L W.
15. Shrewsbury — 18 points from 14 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 17 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W W D L.
16. Fleetwood Town — 17 points from 14 played (4 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 18 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: D W L L W.
17. Bristol Rovers — 16 points from 14 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 8 lost), 17 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L L L D L.
18. Oldham — 15 points from 14 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 15 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: W L D L W.
19. Port Vale — 15 points from 12 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 10 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
20. Rochdale — 15 points from 14 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 17 scored, 26 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: D L D L L.
21. Northampton — 14 points from 13 played (3 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 9 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W L W D L.
22. Rotherham — 12 points from 14 played (2 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost), 18 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L D D L.
23. Colchester — 12 points from 13 played (2 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost), 12 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L D D L L.
24. Crawley Town — 9 points from 12 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 13 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: D L L D W.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-11, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 18 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Cheltenham — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 0.8%; bottom-three risk down 0.3, to 6%.
• Exeter City — chance of finishing top up 0.3, to 1.5%; bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 1%.
• Crawley Town — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 58.3%.
• Rochdale — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 48%.
• Accrington Stanley — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 1.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 388 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-11, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Salford City — projected to finish on 86.2 points, from 31 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 41%, finishes top three 76.6%, bottom two 0%.
2. Barnet — projected to finish on 82.7 points, from 26 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 28.5% (down 0.1), finishes top three 63.8%, bottom two 0%.
3. Walsall — projected to finish on 75 points, from 22 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 8.7%, finishes top three 35.8%, bottom two 0.2%.
4. Grimsby — projected to finish on 72.7 points, from 20 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.7% (down 0.1), finishes top three 27.4%, bottom two 0.4%.
5. York — projected to finish on 68.8 points, from 20 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3.3%, finishes top three 16.7%, bottom two 0.7%.
6. Chesterfield — projected to finish on 68.5 points, from 19 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.9%, finishes top three 15%, bottom two 0.9%.
7. Exeter City — projected to finish on 67.1 points, from 19 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.5% (up 0.3), finishes top three 9.7%, bottom two 0.4%.
8. Crewe — projected to finish on 66.7 points, from 22 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.8% (down 0.1), finishes top three 10.4%, bottom two 0.7%.
9. Accrington Stanley — projected to finish on 66.1 points, from 19 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.7% (down 0.1), finishes top three 9.8%, bottom two 1.4%.
10. Cheltenham — projected to finish on 63.3 points, from 21 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8% (down 0.1), finishes top three 6.4%, bottom two 3%.
11. Swindon Town — projected to finish on 62.9 points, from 19 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.6%, finishes top three 4.7%, bottom two 3.1%.
12. Newport County — projected to finish on 61.6 points, from 18 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5%, finishes top three 4.2%, bottom two 3.6%.
13. Oldham — projected to finish on 61.2 points, from 15 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top three 3.7%, bottom two 4.7%.
14. Fleetwood Town — projected to finish on 60.3 points, from 17 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top three 3%, bottom two 4.9%.
15. Port Vale — projected to finish on 60.1 points, from 15 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top three 2.7%, bottom two 6%.
16. Gillingham — projected to finish on 59.9 points, from 20 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5%, finishes top three 3.3%, bottom two 5.2%.
17. Tranmere — projected to finish on 59.3 points, from 19 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top three 2.6%, bottom two 5.7%.
18. Bristol Rovers — projected to finish on 57.7 points, from 16 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top three 1.5%, bottom two 7.8%.
19. Northampton — projected to finish on 56.7 points, from 14 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top three 1%, bottom two 8.1%.
20. Shrewsbury — projected to finish on 54.8 points, from 18 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.1), finishes top three 0.5%, bottom two 12.1%.
21. Colchester — projected to finish on 54.7 points, from 12 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top three 1%, bottom two 15%.
22. Rochdale — projected to finish on 47.8 points, from 15 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.1%, bottom two 34.6%.
23. Rotherham — projected to finish on 47.8 points, from 12 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.2%, bottom two 35.9%.
24. Crawley Town — projected to finish on 45.1 points, from 9 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 46%.

Top scorers

1. K. Tshimanga (Barnet) — 10 goals, 4 assists.
2. C. McCann (Cheltenham) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
3. A. Pressley (Walsall) — 9 goals.
4. A. Drinan (Swindon Town) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
5. P. Mullin (Rotherham) — 8 goals.
6. J. Woods (Accrington Stanley) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
7. O. Pearce (York) — 6 goals, 4 assists.
8. C. Lakin (Barnet) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
9. A. Newby (York) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
10. Ronan Hale (Gillingham) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
11. J. Gibson (Crewe) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
12. R. Coughlan (Fleetwood Town) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
13. L. Marsh (Chesterfield) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
14. D. Jones (Tranmere) — 5 goals.
15. S. Gwengwe (Newport County) — 5 goals.
16. C. Caton (Accrington Stanley) — 5 goals.
17. C. Kavanagh (Oldham) — 5 goals, 4 assists.
18. M. Langstaff (Salford City) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
19. G. Lloyd (Shrewsbury) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
20. J. Evans (Cheltenham) — 4 goals, 4 assists.