League Two

1. Barnet — 15 points from 7 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost), 17 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: D D D W W.
2. Walsall — 13 points from 7 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost), 10 scored, 4 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W D D D W.
3. Grimsby — 13 points from 7 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost), 11 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D D D W W.
4. Gillingham — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 11 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D D W W W.
5. Cheltenham — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W D W D.
6. Bristol Rovers — 12 points from 7 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost), 12 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W W W L L.
7. York — 11 points from 7 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 13 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W L D W L.
8. Chesterfield — 11 points from 7 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 10 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L D D W W.
9. Crewe — 11 points from 7 played (2 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost), 7 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D D D D D.
10. Tranmere — 10 points from 7 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 9 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D D W L D.
11. Fleetwood Town — 10 points from 7 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 8 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D D W D L.
12. Salford City — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
13. Swindon Town — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L W W L L.
14. Rotherham — 9 points from 7 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D L D W.
15. Colchester — 9 points from 7 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W L L D D.
16. Oldham — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W D L L L.
17. Rochdale — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 7 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L W L D W.
18. Shrewsbury — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 5 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
19. Newport County — 6 points from 7 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D L L D D.
20. Exeter City — 6 points from 7 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 4 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L D D L D.
21. Accrington Stanley — 6 points from 7 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L D W L D.
22. Northampton — 6 points from 7 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 3 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: D D W L L.
23. Port Vale — 5 points from 7 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 3 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
24. Crawley Town — 4 points from 7 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L D L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-09-23, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 17 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Port Vale — bottom-three risk up 0.6, to 40.8%.
• Newport County — bottom-three risk down 0.4, to 21.1%.
• Crewe — chance of finishing top up 0.3, to 5%; bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 0.8%.
• Barnet — chance of finishing top down 0.2, to 31.9%.
• Oldham — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 16%.

Season projection

Every one of the 468 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-09-23, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Barnet — projected to finish on 78.6 points, from 15 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 31.9% (down 0.2), finishes top four 71.3%, bottom three 0%.
2. Grimsby — projected to finish on 75.1 points, from 13 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 17.3%, finishes top four 54.8%, bottom three 0.1%.
3. Walsall — projected to finish on 73.7 points, from 13 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 13.3%, finishes top four 48.1%, bottom three 0.2%.
4. Cheltenham — projected to finish on 69.8 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.6% (down 0.1), finishes top four 29%, bottom three 0.8%.
5. Fleetwood Town — projected to finish on 69.8 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.5% (up 0.1), finishes top four 29.9%, bottom three 0.6%.
6. Gillingham — projected to finish on 69.6 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.7%, finishes top four 28.9%, bottom three 0.9%.
7. York — projected to finish on 69.6 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.3% (down 0.2), finishes top four 28.4%, bottom three 0.7%.
8. Crewe — projected to finish on 69.1 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5% (up 0.3), finishes top four 26.5%, bottom three 0.8%.
9. Chesterfield — projected to finish on 67.6 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3%, finishes top four 20.6%, bottom three 1.3%.
10. Bristol Rovers — projected to finish on 66.2 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.3% (up 0.1), finishes top four 15.9%, bottom three 2.2%.
11. Rotherham — projected to finish on 65.8 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.3% (up 0.1), finishes top four 15%, bottom three 2.4%.
12. Tranmere — projected to finish on 63.1 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 8.4%, bottom three 3.9%.
13. Salford City — projected to finish on 62.2 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8% (up 0.1), finishes top four 6.8%, bottom three 5.9%.
14. Swindon Town — projected to finish on 59.3 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top four 3.3%, bottom three 11.5%.
15. Colchester — projected to finish on 58.7 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top four 2.8%, bottom three 12.6%.
16. Oldham — projected to finish on 57.3 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top four 2.3%, bottom three 16%.
17. Exeter City — projected to finish on 56.3 points, from 6 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 1.6%, bottom three 18.4%.
18. Accrington Stanley — projected to finish on 56.2 points, from 6 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 1.8%, bottom three 20%.
19. Newport County — projected to finish on 55.8 points, from 6 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 1.6%, bottom three 21.1%.
20. Shrewsbury — projected to finish on 55.5 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 1.3%, bottom three 22.6%.
21. Rochdale — projected to finish on 54.4 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 0.9%, bottom three 26.6%.
22. Northampton — projected to finish on 53.1 points, from 6 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.5%, bottom three 31.5%.
23. Port Vale — projected to finish on 51.6 points, from 5 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.4%, bottom three 40.8%.
24. Crawley Town — projected to finish on 47.9 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 59.3%.

Top scorers

1. C. Lakin (Barnet) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
2. A. Newby (York) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
3. C. McCann (Cheltenham) — 6 goals.
4. C. Caton (Accrington Stanley) — 5 goals.
5. A. Drinan (Swindon Town) — 5 goals.
6. S. Gwengwe (Newport County) — 4 goals.
7. A. Pressley (Walsall) — 4 goals.
8. K. Tshimanga (Barnet) — 4 goals, 4 assists.
9. J. Evans (Cheltenham) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
10. K. Green (Grimsby) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
11. L. Bonis (Chesterfield) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
12. J. Powell (Salford City) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
13. J. March (Crewe) — 3 goals.
14. J. Brophy (Gillingham) — 3 goals.
15. C. Kavanagh (Oldham) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
16. A. Weimann (Cheltenham) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
17. P. Mullin (Rotherham) — 3 goals.
18. H. Boyes (York) — 2 goals, 4 assists.
19. O. Pearce (York) — 2 goals, 3 assists.
20. H. Biggins (Newport County) — 2 goals, 2 assists.