Colchester
vs
Gillingham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Colchester 1–0 Gillingham
The model makes it 45% Colchester, 28% draw, 27% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colchester 1.55, Gillingham 1.09.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Colchester's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Gillingham's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Colchester are 21st on 12 points from 12 games; Gillingham are 13th on 17 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Colchester have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Northampton.
- Gillingham are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Grimsby.
- Last 6 meetings: Colchester 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 29 December 2025, ended Gillingham 1–1 Colchester.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colchester vs Gillingham
Has the model earned this number?
Colchester at 45%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Colchester vs Gillingham
Colchester
League Two
- L0-2away to Northampton24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
- D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Newport County10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Shrewsbury26 September 2026
Gillingham
League Two
- L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
- D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Rotherham10 October 2026
- D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
What these results say
- Colchester did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Colchester conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Colchester had two goals or fewer.
- Gillingham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Colchester vs Gillingham
- 29 December 2025Gillingham 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 6 December 2025Colchester 0–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 7 October 2025Colchester 2–1 GillinghamEFL Trophy
- 1 April 2025Gillingham 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 26 December 2024Colchester 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 1 January 2024Colchester 0–1 GillinghamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Colchester and Gillingham
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colchester carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.03 for Gillingham.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Colchester and 1.09 for Gillingham.
Colchester rate 0.43 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gillingham rate 0.47 and 2.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gillingham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colchester a 0.3% chance of the title and Gillingham 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Colchester against 1.09 for Gillingham. Colchester's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.46 for Gillingham.
How the model reaches 45% for Colchester to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Colchester to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Colchester's ratings add 1 point and Gillingham's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Colchester's ratings42%+1
- Gillingham's ratings45%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Colchester at home · Gillingham away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Colchester 12, Gillingham 13.
Gillingham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Colchester have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Colchester
- at Tranmere21 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- vs York28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Grimsby1 Dec · League Twowin 25%
- at Salford City12 Dec · League Twowin 23%
Gillingham
- vs Crewe21 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- at Salford City28 Nov · League Twowin 20%
- vs Swindon Town1 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- at Oldham12 Dec · League Twowin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.