Fleetwood Town
vs
Tranmere
League Two prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Tranmere
The model makes it 45% Fleetwood Town, 28% draw, 27% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.53, Tranmere 1.06.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Fleetwood Town's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Tranmere's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Fleetwood Town are 18th on 14 points from 13 games; Tranmere are 14th on 16 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Fleetwood Town have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Exeter City.
- Tranmere have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Crawley Town.
- Last 6 meetings: Fleetwood Town 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Fleetwood Town 0–0 Tranmere.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
Fleetwood Town at 45%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
Tranmere
League Two
- D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
- D1-1Rochdale10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
- 14 March 2026Fleetwood Town 0–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 26 December 2025Tranmere 1–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 2 December 2025Tranmere 0–3 Fleetwood TownEFL Trophy
- 22 March 2025Fleetwood Town 0–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 11 February 2025Tranmere 0–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 5 September 2023Fleetwood Town 2–0 TranmereEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
GoalsAssists
- R. Coughlan51
Tranmere
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.01 for Tranmere.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.06 for Tranmere.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.45 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tranmere rate 0.43 and 2.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tranmere, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 0.4% chance of the title and Tranmere 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.06 for Tranmere. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.32 for Tranmere.
How the model reaches 45% for Fleetwood Town to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fleetwood Town to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Fleetwood Town's ratings add 2 points and Tranmere's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Fleetwood Town's ratings42%+2
- Tranmere's ratings45%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fleetwood Town at home · Tranmere away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Fleetwood Town 13, Tranmere 13.
Fleetwood Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Tranmere have let in 1 there.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Fleetwood Town have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fleetwood Town
- at Crawley Town21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Accrington Stanley28 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- at Northampton1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
- vs Swindon Town12 Dec · League Twowin 39%
Tranmere
- vs Colchester21 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- at Bristol Rovers28 Nov · League Twowin 28%
- vs Salford City1 Dec · League Twowin 27%
- vs York12 Dec · League Twowin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.