Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Salford City vs Northampton League Two prediction

Peninsula Stadium, Salford

Our model says: Salford City 1–0 Northampton

The model makes it 44% Salford City, 32% draw, 24% Northampton — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).

Expected goals: Salford City 1.22, Northampton 0.75.

Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.

Edge to Salford City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Salford City's rating is built from 62 League Two matches and Northampton's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.

Key facts

  • Salford City are top on 28 points from 13 games; Northampton are 19th on 13 points from 11 games — League Two.
  • Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-2 win away to Walsall.
  • Northampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Colchester.
  • Last 6 meetings: Northampton 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 January 2023, ended Salford City 2–1 Northampton.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Salford City vs Northampton

38%
Both teams to score
31%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Salford City win Draw Northampton win
  1. 1–016%
  2. 0–015%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–110%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Salford City first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Salford City at 44%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Salford City vs Northampton

Salford City

League Two

  • W4-2away to Walsall26 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
  • W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Cheltenham10 October 2026
  • W1-0Fleetwood Town3 October 2026

Northampton

League Two

  • W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to York10 October 2026
  • L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Salford City won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Salford City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Salford City139132314+928
19Northampton1134488013

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Salford City vs Northampton

  • 7 January 2023Salford City 2–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 8 October 2022Northampton 0–1 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 29 January 2022Northampton 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 25 September 2021Salford City 2–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 11 January 2020Salford City 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 19 October 2019Northampton 2–0 Salford CityLeague Two

Leading scorers: Salford City and Northampton

Salford City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Langstaff51

Northampton

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Salford City carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.18 for Northampton.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Salford City and 0.75 for Northampton.

Salford City rate 0.56 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Northampton rate 0.35 and 1.49.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Salford City a 30% chance of the title and Northampton 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Salford City against 0.75 for Northampton. Salford City's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.49 for Northampton.

How the model reaches 44% for Salford City to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Salford City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Salford City's ratings add 6 points and Northampton's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−4
  4. Salford City's ratings43%+6
  5. Northampton's ratings44%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Salford CityNorthampton
13Matches11
9W 1D 3LRecord3W 4D 4L
23 1.8 per gameGoals scored8 0.7 per game
14 1.1 per gameGoals conceded8 0.7 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets4 of 11
2 of 13Failed to score5 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored–
20 1.5 per gameYellow cards17 1.5 per game
1Red cards1
5-3-2 6×Usual shape4-4-2 8×

Salford City at home · Northampton away

6Played5
5W 0D 1LRecord1W 2D 2L
7–3Goals for – against4–5
3 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Salford City 13, Northampton 11.

Salford City scored 332438
Northampton conceded 202121

Salford City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Northampton have let in 1 there.

Northampton scored 203201
Salford City conceded 123431

Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Salford City have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Salford City

  • at Accrington Stanley21 Nov · League Twowin 36%
  • vs Gillingham28 Nov · League Twowin 56%
  • at Tranmere1 Dec · League Twowin 45%
  • vs Colchester12 Dec · League Twowin 49%

Northampton

  • vs Rochdale21 Nov · League Twowin 46%
  • at Port Vale24 Nov · League Twowin 32%
  • at Walsall28 Nov · League Twowin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.