Exeter City
vs
Crawley Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Exeter City 1–0 Crawley Town
The model makes it 48% Exeter City, 32% draw, 20% Crawley Town — fair odds of 2.08, 3.13 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Exeter City 1.21, Crawley Town 0.59.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Exeter City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Exeter City's rating is built from 15 League Two matches and Crawley Town's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Exeter City are 8th on 22 points from 15 games; Crawley Town are bottom on 9 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Exeter City have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Cheltenham.
- Crawley Town have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Oldham.
- Last 6 meetings: Exeter City 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 April 2025, ended Crawley Town 3–1 Exeter City.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Exeter City vs Crawley Town
Has the model earned this number?
Exeter City at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Exeter City vs Crawley Town
Exeter City
League Two
- W1-0Cheltenham14 November 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City31 October 2026
- W2-1Fleetwood Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
Crawley Town
League Two
- W1-0away to Oldham31 October 2026
- D1-1Tranmere24 October 2026
- L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
What these results say
- Exeter City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Exeter City | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 22 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Exeter City
Chance to finish in the top three · 12% today
Crawley Town
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 44% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Crawley Town
- 21 April 2025Crawley Town 3–1 Exeter CityLeague One
- 29 December 2024Exeter City 4–4 Crawley TownLeague One
- 8 August 2023Exeter City 2–1 Crawley TownLeague Cup
- 15 March 2022Exeter City 2–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 19 October 2021Crawley Town 1–3 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 27 February 2021Crawley Town 2–0 Exeter CityLeague Two
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Exeter City a 1.3% chance of the title and Crawley Town 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Exeter City the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Exeter City against 0.59 for Crawley Town. Exeter City's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.35 for Crawley Town.
How the model reaches 48% for Exeter City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Exeter City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 5 points, Exeter City's ratings add 3 points and Crawley Town's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level36%−5
- Exeter City's ratings39%+3
- Crawley Town's ratings48%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Exeter City at home · Crawley Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Exeter City 15, Crawley Town 12.
Exeter City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Crawley Town have let in 6 there.
Crawley Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Exeter City have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Exeter City
- at Chesterfield1 Dec · League Twowin 29%
- vs Rochdale12 Dec · League Twowin 51%
- at Northampton19 Dec · League Twowin 30%
- vs Newport County26 Dec · League Twowin 42%
Crawley Town
- vs Port Vale1 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.