Grimsby
vs
Rotherham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Grimsby 2–1 Rotherham
The model makes it 61% Grimsby, 21% draw, 18% Rotherham — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Grimsby 2.46, Rotherham 1.15.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Grimsby: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Grimsby's rating is built from 62 League Two matches and Rotherham's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.
Key facts
- Grimsby are 6th on 20 points from 14 games; Rotherham are 22nd on 12 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Grimsby are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to York.
- Rotherham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Swindon Town.
- Last 2 meetings: Rotherham 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 July 2024, ended Grimsby 2–2 Rotherham.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Grimsby vs Rotherham
Has the model earned this number?
Grimsby at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Grimsby vs Rotherham
Grimsby
League Two
- W5-2York31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Gillingham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
- L0-2Northampton17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale10 October 2026
Rotherham
League Two
- L1-2away to Swindon Town31 October 2026
- D3-3Shrewsbury24 October 2026
- D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
What these results say
- Grimsby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 20 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Grimsby
Chance to finish in the top three · 27% today
Rotherham
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 36% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Rotherham
- 30 July 2024Grimsby 2–2 RotherhamFriendlies Clubs
- 24 July 2021Grimsby 0–1 RotherhamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Grimsby and Rotherham
Grimsby
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grimsby a 6.7% chance of the title and Rotherham 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Grimsby against 1.15 for Rotherham. Grimsby's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.74 for Rotherham.
How the model reaches 61% for Grimsby to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Grimsby to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Grimsby's ratings add 8 points and Rotherham's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level43%+2
- Grimsby's ratings51%+8
- Rotherham's ratings61%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Grimsby at home · Rotherham away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Grimsby 14, Rotherham 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Grimsby
- at Crewe28 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Colchester1 Dec · League Twowin 52%
- at Chesterfield12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- vs Barnet19 Dec · League Twowin 42%
Rotherham
- vs Oldham28 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Barnet1 Dec · League Twowin 17%
- vs Walsall12 Dec · League Twowin 29%
- at Port Vale19 Dec · League Twowin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.