Rochdale
vs
York
League Two prediction
Our model says: Rochdale 1–2 York
The model makes it 28% Rochdale, 25% draw, 47% York — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rochdale 1.32, York 1.89.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Edge to York: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Rochdale's rating is built from 13 League Two matches and York's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Rochdale are 17th on 15 points from 13 games; York are 5th on 20 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Rochdale are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Accrington Stanley.
- York have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Barnet.
- Last 6 meetings: York 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Rochdale 1–1 York.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rochdale vs York
Has the model earned this number?
York at 47%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rochdale vs York
Rochdale
League Two
- L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
- D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tranmere10 October 2026
- W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
York
League Two
- L1-3away to Barnet27 October 2026
- W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County17 October 2026
- D1-1Northampton10 October 2026
What these results say
- Rochdale failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rochdale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rochdale conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- York scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- York failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- York conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 5 | York | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs York
- 25 April 2026Rochdale 1–1 YorkNational League
- 11 November 2025York 4–1 RochdaleNational League
- 11 October 2025Rochdale 1–2 YorkFA Cup
- 25 March 2025Rochdale 0–4 YorkNational League
- 20 August 2024York 1–0 RochdaleNational League
- 16 December 2023Rochdale 0–0 YorkNational League
Leading scorers: Rochdale and York
Rochdale
GoalsAssists
- D. Brown42
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce64
- A. Newby61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Rochdale carry a model rating of 5.97 against 6.24 for York.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Rochdale and 1.89 for York.
Rochdale rate 0.45 in attack and 2.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; York rate 0.59 and 2.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rochdale a 0% chance of the title and York 6.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Rochdale against 1.89 for York. Rochdale's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.01 for York.
How the model reaches 47% for York to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for York to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Rochdale's ratings add 7 points and York's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Rochdale's ratings39%+7
- York's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rochdale at home · York away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Rochdale 13, York 13.
Rochdale score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); York have let in 3 there.
York score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Rochdale have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rochdale
- at Northampton21 Nov · League Twowin 24%
- vs Barnet28 Nov · League Twowin 25%
- at Cheltenham1 Dec · League Twowin 27%
- at Exeter City12 Dec · League Twowin 20%
York
- vs Walsall21 Nov · League Twowin 45%
- at Colchester28 Nov · League Twowin 38%
- vs Shrewsbury1 Dec · League Twowin 54%
- at Tranmere12 Dec · League Twowin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.