Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers League Two prediction

Whaddon Road, Cheltenham

Our model says: Cheltenham 2–1 Bristol Rovers

The model makes it 42% Cheltenham, 25% draw, 33% Bristol Rovers — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.75, Bristol Rovers 1.49.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Cheltenham's rating is built from 60 League Two matches and Bristol Rovers's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.

Key facts

  • Cheltenham are 5th on 21 points from 14 games; Bristol Rovers are 17th on 16 points from 14 games — League Two.
  • Cheltenham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Tranmere.
  • Bristol Rovers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Fleetwood Town.
  • Last 6 meetings: Bristol Rovers 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Bristol Rovers 4–0 Cheltenham.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers

65%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cheltenham win Draw Bristol Rovers win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Cheltenham first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cheltenham at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers

Cheltenham

League Two

  • L1-3away to Tranmere31 October 2026
  • W1-0Newport County24 October 2026
  • W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026
  • L0-2Salford City10 October 2026

Bristol Rovers

League Two

  • L1-3away to Fleetwood Town31 October 2026
  • D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
  • L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
  • L1-3Barnet10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cheltenham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cheltenham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bristol Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Cheltenham146352325-221
17Bristol Rovers145181723-616

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Cheltenham

Chance to finish in the top three · 6% today

Win 8%
Draw 5%
Defeat 4%

Bristol Rovers

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today

Win 5%
Draw 7%
Defeat 9%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers

  • 25 April 2026Bristol Rovers 4–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 22 November 2025Cheltenham 1–0 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • 7 October 2025Cheltenham 0–1 Bristol RoversEFL Trophy
  • 13 April 2024Cheltenham 1–3 Bristol RoversLeague One
  • 9 December 2023Bristol Rovers 1–1 CheltenhamLeague One
  • 5 September 2023Bristol Rovers 4–1 CheltenhamEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91
  • J. Evans44

Bristol Rovers

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cheltenham a 0.8% chance of the title and Bristol Rovers 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cheltenham Bristol Rovers
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.47
2.61 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.25
1.75 Model expected goals (this match) 1.49

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cheltenham the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Cheltenham against 1.49 for Bristol Rovers. Cheltenham's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.25 for Bristol Rovers.

Cheltenham carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.07 for Bristol Rovers. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Cheltenham to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cheltenham to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cheltenham's ratings change nothing and Bristol Rovers's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%+2
  4. Cheltenham's ratings43%±0
  5. Bristol Rovers's ratings42%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CheltenhamBristol Rovers
14Matches14
6W 3D 5LRecord5W 1D 8L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
25 1.8 per gameGoals conceded23 1.6 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
2 of 3Penalties scored1 of 2
36 2.6 per gameYellow cards33 2.4 per game
2Red cards2
4-1-4-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Cheltenham at home · Bristol Rovers away

7Played7
5W 1D 1LRecord1W 0D 6L
14–10Goals for – against6–15
1 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Cheltenham 14, Bristol Rovers 14.

Cheltenham scored 345334
Bristol Rovers conceded 332438

Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Bristol Rovers have let in 2 there.

Bristol Rovers scored 132323
Cheltenham conceded 352547

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Cheltenham

  • at Shrewsbury28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
  • vs Rochdale1 Dec · League Twowin 50%
  • vs Crewe12 Dec · League Twowin 39%
  • at Gillingham19 Dec · League Twowin 32%

Bristol Rovers

  • vs Tranmere28 Nov · League Twowin 43%
  • at Oldham1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
  • vs Accrington Stanley12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • at Rochdale19 Dec · League Twowin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.