Bristol Rovers
vs
Chesterfield
League Two prediction
Our model says: Bristol Rovers 1–2 Chesterfield
The model makes it 35% Bristol Rovers, 27% draw, 38% Chesterfield — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.45, Chesterfield 1.51.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Bristol Rovers's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Chesterfield's from 62, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Bristol Rovers are 16th on 16 points from 13 games; Chesterfield are 7th on 19 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Bristol Rovers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Swindon Town.
- Chesterfield have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Newport County.
- Last 6 meetings: Chesterfield 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Bristol Rovers 2–3 Chesterfield.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
Has the model earned this number?
Chesterfield at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
Bristol Rovers
League Two
- D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
- L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
- L1-3Barnet10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crewe3 October 2026
Chesterfield
League Two
- L1-4away to Newport County30 October 2026
- W5-1Crewe24 October 2026
- D1-1Colchester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Crawley Town10 October 2026
What these results say
- Bristol Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chesterfield conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chesterfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chesterfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
- 7 February 2026Bristol Rovers 2–3 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 29 July 2023Bristol Rovers 2–0 ChesterfieldFriendlies Clubs
- 18 March 2017Bristol Rovers 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague One
- 26 November 2016Chesterfield 3–2 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 1 February 2014Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh51
- L. Bonis42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bristol Rovers carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.2 for Chesterfield.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.51 for Chesterfield.
Bristol Rovers rate 0.47 in attack and 2.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chesterfield rate 0.57 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bristol Rovers a 0.2% chance of the title and Chesterfield 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bristol Rovers against 1.51 for Chesterfield. Bristol Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.11 for Chesterfield.
How the model reaches 38% for Chesterfield to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chesterfield to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Bristol Rovers's ratings add 3 points and Chesterfield's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Bristol Rovers's ratings35%+3
- Chesterfield's ratings38%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bristol Rovers at home · Chesterfield away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Bristol Rovers 13, Chesterfield 14.
Bristol Rovers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Chesterfield have let in 3 there.
Chesterfield score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Bristol Rovers have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bristol Rovers
- at Cheltenham21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Tranmere28 Nov · League Twowin 45%
- at Oldham1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
- vs Accrington Stanley12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
Chesterfield
- vs Shrewsbury21 Nov · League Twowin 52%
- at Swindon Town28 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- vs Exeter City1 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- vs Grimsby12 Dec · League Twowin 40%
- at Accrington Stanley19 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.