Exeter City
vs
Cheltenham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Exeter City 1–0 Cheltenham
The model makes it 46% Exeter City, 30% draw, 24% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Exeter City 1.32, Cheltenham 0.80.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Edge to Exeter City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Exeter City's rating is built from 13 League Two matches and Cheltenham's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Exeter City are 8th on 19 points from 13 games; Cheltenham are 3rd on 21 points from 13 games — League Two.
- Exeter City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Fleetwood Town.
- Cheltenham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Newport County.
- Last 6 meetings: Cheltenham 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 September 2026, ended Cheltenham 2–2 Exeter City.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Exeter City vs Cheltenham
Has the model earned this number?
Exeter City at 46%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Exeter City vs Cheltenham
Exeter City
League Two
- W2-1Fleetwood Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Shrewsbury10 October 2026
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
Cheltenham
League Two
- W1-0Newport County24 October 2026
- W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
- L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026
- L0-2Salford City10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
What these results say
- Exeter City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Exeter City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Exeter City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 19 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Cheltenham
- 22 September 2026Cheltenham 2–2 Exeter CityEFL Trophy
- 13 August 2025Cheltenham 2–0 Exeter CityLeague Cup
- 1 April 2024Cheltenham 1–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 16 September 2023Exeter City 1–0 CheltenhamLeague One
- 18 March 2023Cheltenham 3–1 Exeter CityLeague One
- 20 August 2022Exeter City 0–1 CheltenhamLeague One
Leading scorers: Exeter City and Cheltenham
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann81
- J. Evans43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Exeter City carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.08 for Cheltenham.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Exeter City and 0.80 for Cheltenham.
Exeter City rate 0.35 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cheltenham rate 0.54 and 2.57.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cheltenham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Exeter City a 2.2% chance of the title and Cheltenham 1.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Exeter City the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Exeter City against 0.80 for Cheltenham. Exeter City's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.57 for Cheltenham.
How the model reaches 46% for Exeter City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Exeter City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Exeter City's ratings change nothing and Cheltenham's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level38%−3
- Exeter City's ratings38%±0
- Cheltenham's ratings46%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Exeter City at home · Cheltenham away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Exeter City 13, Cheltenham 13.
Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Exeter City have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Exeter City
- at Oldham21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Crawley Town28 Nov · League Twowin 50%
- at Chesterfield1 Dec · League Twowin 31%
- vs Rochdale12 Dec · League Twowin 50%
Cheltenham
- vs Bristol Rovers21 Nov · League Twowin 42%
- at Shrewsbury28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- vs Rochdale1 Dec · League Twowin 49%
- vs Crewe12 Dec · League Twowin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.