Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Newport County vs Swindon Town League Two prediction

Rodney Parade, Newport

Our model says: Newport County 1–0 Swindon Town

The model makes it 39% Newport County, 29% draw, 32% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Newport County 1.32, Swindon Town 1.14.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Newport County's rating is built from 60 League Two matches and Swindon Town's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.

Key facts

  • Newport County are 14th on 18 points from 14 games; Swindon Town are 13th on 19 points from 14 games — League Two.
  • Newport County have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Chesterfield.
  • Swindon Town are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Rotherham.
  • Last 6 meetings: Swindon Town 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2026, ended Swindon Town 0–2 Newport County.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Newport County vs Swindon Town

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Newport County win Draw Swindon Town win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Newport County first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Newport County at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Newport County vs Swindon Town

Newport County

League Two

  • W4-1Chesterfield30 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
  • D1-1York17 October 2026
  • W1-0Colchester10 October 2026

Swindon Town

League Two

  • W2-1Rotherham31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026
  • L0-1Crewe10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Newport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Newport County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Swindon Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Newport County144642017+318
13Swindon Town145451517-219

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Swindon Town

Chance to finish in the top three · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 4%
Defeat 3%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Newport County vs Swindon Town

  • 22 September 2026Swindon Town 0–2 Newport CountyEFL Trophy
  • 11 February 2026Swindon Town 2–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 4 October 2025Newport County 0–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 24 January 2025Newport County 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 14 September 2024Swindon Town 4–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 3 February 2024Newport County 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: Newport County and Swindon Town

Newport County

GoalsAssists

  • S. Gwengwe50

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Swindon Town (13th, with Newport County 14th), while our numbers lean to Newport County. Newport County rate 0.46 in attack and 2.08 in defence, Swindon Town 0.45 and 1.95 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.5% chance of the title and Swindon Town 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Newport County Swindon Town
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
2.08 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.95
1.32 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Newport County the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Newport County against 1.14 for Swindon Town. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.95 for Swindon Town.

Newport County carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.12 for Swindon Town. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Newport County to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Newport County to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Newport County's ratings change nothing and Swindon Town's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−1
  4. Newport County's ratings40%±0
  5. Swindon Town's ratings39%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Newport CountySwindon Town
14Matches14
4W 6D 4LRecord5W 4D 5L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored15 1.1 per game
17 1.2 per gameGoals conceded17 1.2 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14
4 of 14Failed to score7 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored0 of 1
26 1.9 per gameYellow cards23 1.6 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape4-3-3 8×

Newport County at home · Swindon Town away

7Played7
4W 3D 0LRecord1W 2D 4L
14–6Goals for – against3–10
2 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Newport County 14, Swindon Town 14.

Newport County scored 342533
Swindon Town conceded 321217

Newport County score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Swindon Town have let in 2 there.

Swindon Town scored 313313
Newport County conceded 400343

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Newport County

  • at Port Vale28 Nov · League Twowin 31%
  • vs Walsall1 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • at Crawley Town12 Dec · League Twowin 37%
  • vs Oldham19 Dec · League Twowin 38%

Swindon Town

  • vs Chesterfield28 Nov · League Twowin 37%
  • at Gillingham1 Dec · League Twowin 34%
  • at Fleetwood Town12 Dec · League Twowin 31%
  • vs Tranmere19 Dec · League Twowin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.