Rotherham
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Rotherham 1–2 Oldham
The model makes it 34% Rotherham, 27% draw, 39% Oldham — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rotherham 1.39, Oldham 1.54.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Oldham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rotherham's rating is built from 14 League Two matches and Oldham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Rotherham are 23rd on 12 points from 14 games; Oldham are 20th on 15 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Rotherham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Swindon Town.
- Oldham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Shrewsbury.
- Last 5 meetings: Rotherham 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 October 2025, ended Rotherham 3–2 Oldham.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rotherham vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
Oldham at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rotherham vs Oldham
Rotherham
League Two
- L1-2away to Swindon Town31 October 2026
- D3-3Shrewsbury24 October 2026
- D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
Oldham
League Two
- L1-2away to Shrewsbury14 November 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton3 November 2026
- L0-1Crawley Town31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
What these results say
- Rotherham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rotherham
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 37% today
Oldham
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 6% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rotherham vs Oldham
- 7 October 2025Rotherham 3–2 OldhamEFL Trophy
- 13 January 2018Oldham 1–1 RotherhamLeague One
- 23 September 2017Rotherham 5–1 OldhamLeague One
- 11 March 2014Oldham 0–2 RotherhamLeague One
- 14 September 2013Rotherham 3–2 OldhamLeague One
Leading scorers: Rotherham and Oldham
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin80
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rotherham against 1.54 for Oldham. Rotherham's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.97 for Oldham.
How the model reaches 39% for Oldham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oldham to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Rotherham's ratings add 5 points and Oldham's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Rotherham's ratings36%+5
- Oldham's ratings39%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rotherham at home · Oldham away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Rotherham 14, Oldham 15.
Oldham score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Rotherham have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rotherham
- at Barnet1 Dec · League Twowin 17%
- vs Walsall12 Dec · League Twowin 29%
- at Port Vale19 Dec · League Twowin 25%
Oldham
- vs Bristol Rovers1 Dec · League Twowin 45%
- vs Gillingham12 Dec · League Twowin 46%
- at Newport County19 Dec · League Twowin 32%
- vs York26 Dec · League Twowin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.