Accrington Stanley
vs
Salford City
League Two prediction
Our model says: Accrington Stanley 0–1 Salford City
The model makes it 35% Accrington Stanley, 28% draw, 37% Salford City — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 1.31, Salford City 1.36.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Accrington Stanley and Salford City are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Accrington Stanley are 9th on 19 points from 14 games; Salford City are top on 31 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Northampton.
- Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Exeter City.
- Last 6 meetings: Accrington Stanley 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 October 2026, ended Accrington Stanley 1–1 Salford City.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Accrington Stanley vs Salford City
Has the model earned this number?
Salford City at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Salford City
Accrington Stanley
League Two
- D1-1Northampton31 October 2026
- W5-0away to Rochdale24 October 2026
- D1-1away to York20 October 2026
- W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Oldham10 October 2026
Salford City
League Two
- W2-1Exeter City31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Walsall26 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
- W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cheltenham10 October 2026
What these results say
- Accrington Stanley went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Salford City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Salford City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Salford City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 19 |
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Accrington Stanley
Chance to finish in the top three
Salford City
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 41% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Salford City
- 6 October 2026Accrington Stanley 1–1 Salford CityEFL Trophy
- 5 February 2026Accrington Stanley 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Salford City 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 18 April 2025Salford City 1–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 21 December 2024Accrington Stanley 0–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 1 January 2024Accrington Stanley 3–0 Salford CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Salford City
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- J. Woods71
- C. Caton50
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- M. Langstaff51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Accrington Stanley a 1.7% chance of the title and Salford City 41%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Accrington Stanley against 1.36 for Salford City. Accrington Stanley's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.75 for Salford City.
How the model reaches 37% for Salford City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Salford City to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Accrington Stanley's ratings add 3 points and Salford City's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Accrington Stanley's ratings34%+3
- Salford City's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Accrington Stanley at home · Salford City away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Accrington Stanley 14, Salford City 14.
Accrington Stanley score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); Salford City have let in 1 there.
Salford City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Accrington Stanley have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Accrington Stanley
- at Fleetwood Town28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- vs Crewe1 Dec · League Twowin 44%
- at Bristol Rovers12 Dec · League Twowin 37%
- vs Chesterfield19 Dec · League Twowin 41%
Salford City
- vs Gillingham28 Nov · League Twowin 55%
- at Tranmere1 Dec · League Twowin 44%
- vs Colchester12 Dec · League Twowin 52%
- at Crewe17 Dec · League Twowin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.