Crewe
vs
Newport County
League Two prediction
Our model says: Crewe 1–0 Newport County
The model makes it 42% Crewe, 28% draw, 30% Newport County — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Crewe 1.51, Newport County 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Crewe's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Newport County's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Crewe are 4th on 21 points from 13 games; Newport County are 10th on 18 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Crewe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Chesterfield.
- Newport County have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Chesterfield.
- Last 6 meetings: Newport County 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 December 2025, ended Newport County 2–0 Crewe.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crewe vs Newport County
Has the model earned this number?
Crewe at 42%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Crewe vs Newport County
Crewe
League Two
- L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
- W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Swindon Town10 October 2026
- W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
Newport County
League Two
- W4-1Chesterfield30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
- D1-1York17 October 2026
- W1-0Colchester10 October 2026
What these results say
- Crewe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crewe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newport County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Crewe vs Newport County
- 29 December 2025Newport County 2–0 CreweLeague Two
- 10 December 2025Crewe 2–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 8 February 2025Crewe 0–3 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 28 September 2024Newport County 2–1 CreweLeague Two
- 29 December 2023Newport County 1–1 CreweLeague Two
- 15 August 2023Crewe 4–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Crewe and Newport County
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. Gibson52
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Crewe carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.1 for Newport County.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Crewe and 1.21 for Newport County.
Crewe rate 0.49 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newport County rate 0.47 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crewe a 2% chance of the title and Newport County 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crewe the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Crewe against 1.21 for Newport County. Crewe's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.11 for Newport County.
How the model reaches 42% for Crewe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Crewe to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Crewe's ratings change nothing and Newport County's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Crewe's ratings41%±0
- Newport County's ratings42%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Crewe at home · Newport County away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Crewe 13, Newport County 14.
Crewe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Newport County have let in 3 there.
Newport County score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Crewe have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Crewe
- at Gillingham21 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- vs Grimsby28 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- at Accrington Stanley1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
- at Cheltenham12 Dec · League Twowin 34%
Newport County
- vs Swindon Town21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- at Port Vale28 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- vs Walsall1 Dec · League Twowin 37%
- at Crawley Town12 Dec · League Twowin 40%
- vs Oldham19 Dec · League Twowin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.