Barnet
vs
Port Vale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Barnet 1–0 Port Vale
The model makes it 53% Barnet, 26% draw, 21% Port Vale — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Barnet 1.83, Port Vale 0.98.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Barnet: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Barnet's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Port Vale's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,278 matches.
Key facts
- Barnet are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games; Port Vale are 19th on 15 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Barnet are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Crewe.
- Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Rochdale.
- Last 6 meetings: Port Vale 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2018, ended Barnet 1–1 Port Vale.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barnet vs Port Vale
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Barnet vs Port Vale
Barnet
League Two
- D1-1away to Crewe31 October 2026
- W3-1York27 October 2026
- D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
Port Vale
League Two
- W4-2Rochdale31 October 2026
- L0-2away to York24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
- W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026
- W1-0Grimsby10 October 2026
What these results say
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.
- Port Vale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Barnet
Chance to finish in the top three · 64% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Barnet vs Port Vale
- 13 March 2018Barnet 1–1 Port ValeLeague Two
- 18 November 2017Port Vale 1–0 BarnetLeague Two
- 9 February 2013Barnet 0–0 Port ValeLeague Two
- 18 August 2012Port Vale 3–0 BarnetLeague Two
- 10 March 2012Port Vale 1–2 BarnetLeague Two
- 13 August 2011Barnet 1–3 Port ValeLeague Two
Leading scorers: Barnet and Port Vale
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
Port Vale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnet a 28.5% chance of the title and Port Vale 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Barnet against 0.98 for Port Vale. Barnet's attack/defence rating is 0.67/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.86 for Port Vale.
How the model reaches 53% for Barnet to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Barnet's ratings add 8 points and Port Vale's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Barnet's ratings49%+8
- Port Vale's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Barnet at home · Port Vale away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Barnet 13, Port Vale 12.
Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Port Vale have let in 2 there.
Port Vale score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Barnet have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Barnet
- at Crawley Town24 Nov · League Twowin 50%
- at Rochdale28 Nov · League Twowin 53%
- vs Rotherham1 Dec · League Twowin 63%
- vs Northampton12 Dec · League Twowin 49%
Port Vale
- vs Northampton24 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- vs Newport County28 Nov · League Twowin 38%
- at Crawley Town1 Dec · League Twowin 35%
- at Shrewsbury12 Dec · League Twowin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.