La Liga predictions

Friday 9 October — 1 match

• 19:00 UTC Malaga vs Espanyol — model 31% / 32% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.13 · 2.70.

Saturday 10 October — 4 matches

• 12:00 UTC Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club — model 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.33 · 3.23.
• 14:15 UTC Alaves vs Atletico Madrid — model 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.45 · 2.44.
• 16:30 UTC Barcelona vs Getafe — model 61% / 25% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.00 · 7.14.
• 19:00 UTC Real Madrid vs Villarreal — model 54% / 24% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.17 · 4.55.

Sunday 11 October — 4 matches

• 12:00 UTC Elche vs Celta Vigo — model 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.45 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:15 UTC Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna — model 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.70 · 3.45.
• 16:30 UTC Real Betis vs Osasuna — model 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.85 · 5.26.
• 19:00 UTC Racing Santander vs Valencia — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03.

Monday 12 October — 1 match

• 19:00 UTC Levante vs Sevilla — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13.

Friday 16 October — 1 match

• 19:00 UTC Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45.

Saturday 17 October — 4 matches

• 12:00 UTC Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — model 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.57 · 2.27.
• 14:15 UTC Villarreal vs Elche — model 54% / 24% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.17 · 4.55.
• 16:30 UTC Real Betis vs Barcelona — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44.
• 19:00 UTC Valencia vs Athletic Club — model 35% / 31% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.23 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

17–20 September: the model called the result of 5 of 12 matches, 3 of them to the exact score.

• Real Betis 1–0 Getafe — the model said 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Malaga 1–3 Villarreal — the model said 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Espanyol 1–3 Elche — the model said 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano — the model said 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Athletic Club 0–0 Alaves — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Celta Vigo 5–0 Racing Santander — the model said 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Sevilla 1–3 Barcelona — the model said 27% / 29% / 44%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Getafe 1–0 Malaga — the model said 36% / 32% / 32%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid — the model said 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
• Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Real Betis — the model said 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Villarreal 3–1 Levante — the model said 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Valencia 2–3 Real Sociedad — the model said 36% / 32% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.