Alaves
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Alaves 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna
The model makes it 39% Alaves, 30% draw, 31% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alaves 1.31, Deportivo La Coruna 1.11.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Alaves's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Deportivo La Coruna's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Alaves are 12th on 13 points from 12 games; Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 15 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Alaves have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sevilla.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Espanyol.
- Last 5 meetings: Alaves 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 January 2021, ended Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Alaves.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna
Has the model earned this number?
Alaves at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna
Alaves
La Liga
- D0-0away to Sevilla6 November 2026
- L1-6away to Barcelona31 October 2026
- D1-1Malaga23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Celta Vigo18 October 2026
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- D0-0away to Espanyol7 November 2026
- W2-1Osasuna2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Madrid24 October 2026
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
What these results say
- Alaves did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Alaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Deportivo La Coruna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 6 January 2021Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 AlavesCopa del Rey
- 17 February 2018Alaves 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 20 September 2017Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 18 February 2017Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 19 September 2016Alaves 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Deportivo La Coruna (9th, with Alaves 12th), while our numbers lean to Alaves. Alaves rate 0.89 in attack and 1.05 in defence, Deportivo La Coruna 0.86 and 0.91 (lower is better in defence), so Alaves have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alaves the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alaves against 1.11 for Deportivo La Coruna. Alaves's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.91 for Deportivo La Coruna.
How the model reaches 39% for Alaves to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alaves to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Alaves's ratings take away 1 point and Deportivo La Coruna's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Alaves's ratings41%−1
- Deportivo La Coruna's ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Alaves at home · Deportivo La Coruna away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AlavesDeportivo La Coruna
Alaves are 12th after 12 La Liga matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Deportivo La Coruna are 9th after 12 (between 4th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Alaves 12, Deportivo La Coruna 12.
Alaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Deportivo La Coruna have let in 2 there.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Alaves have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Alaves
- at Real Madrid28 Nov · La Ligawin 8%
- vs Espanyol6 Dec · La Ligawin 41%
- at Levante13 Dec · La Ligawin 28%
- vs Elche20 Dec · La Ligawin 42%
- at Real Betis3 Jan · La Ligawin 17%
Deportivo La Coruna
- vs Barcelona29 Nov · La Ligawin 21%
- at Racing Santander6 Dec · La Ligawin 40%
- vs Athletic Club13 Dec · La Ligawin 38%
- vs Real Madrid20 Dec · La Ligawin 18%
- at Celta Vigo3 Jan · La Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.