Osasuna
vs
Malaga
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Osasuna 1–0 Malaga
The model makes it 49% Osasuna, 27% draw, 24% Malaga — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Osasuna 1.66, Malaga 0.98.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Osasuna: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Osasuna's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Malaga's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Osasuna are 16th on 12 points from 12 games; Malaga are bottom on 5 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Osasuna are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Athletic Club.
- Malaga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Racing Santander.
- Last 6 meetings: Osasuna 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 March 2019, ended Malaga 1–2 Osasuna.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Osasuna vs Malaga
Has the model earned this number?
Osasuna at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Osasuna vs Malaga
Osasuna
La Liga
- D1-1Athletic Club7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Deportivo La Coruna2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Sevilla26 October 2026
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
Malaga
La Liga
- L1-2Racing Santander7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Real Betis31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Alaves23 October 2026
- L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
What these results say
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Osasuna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
Malaga
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 89% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Malaga
- 11 March 2019Malaga 1–2 OsasunaSegunda División
- 3 November 2018Osasuna 2–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 27 January 2017Osasuna 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 19 August 2016Malaga 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 10 March 2014Osasuna 0–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 4 October 2013Malaga 0–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Malaga
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Osasuna against 0.98 for Malaga. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.25 for Malaga.
How the model reaches 49% for Osasuna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Osasuna to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Osasuna's ratings add 4 points and Malaga's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Osasuna's ratings47%+4
- Malaga's ratings49%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Osasuna at home · Malaga away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
OsasunaMalaga
Osasuna are 16th after 12 La Liga matches (between 4th and 16th so far); Malaga are 20th after 12 (between 16th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Osasuna 12, Malaga 12.
Osasuna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Malaga have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Osasuna
- at Valencia29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
- vs Elche6 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
- at Real Madrid13 Dec · La Ligawin 6%
- vs Villarreal20 Dec · La Ligawin 26%
- at Real Sociedad3 Jan · La Ligawin 17%
Malaga
- vs Athletic Club28 Nov · La Ligawin 26%
- at Sevilla6 Dec · La Ligawin 19%
- vs Barcelona13 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
- at Rayo Vallecano20 Dec · La Ligawin 19%
- vs Elche3 Jan · La Ligawin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.