Levante
vs
Elche
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Levante 2–1 Elche
The model makes it 45% Levante, 27% draw, 28% Elche — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Levante 1.65, Elche 1.21.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Levante's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Elche's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Levante are 17th on 11 points from 12 games; Elche are 18th on 10 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Levante are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Celta Vigo.
- Elche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Real Betis.
- Last 6 meetings: Levante 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended Levante 3–2 Elche.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levante vs Elche
Has the model earned this number?
Levante at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levante vs Elche
Levante
La Liga
- D0-0away to Celta Vigo8 November 2026
- L0-2Atletico Madrid31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad25 October 2026
- W3-1Athletic Club21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
Elche
La Liga
- L0-2Real Betis8 November 2026
- L0-1Valencia1 November 2026
- W3-0away to Rayo Vallecano24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Elche had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Levante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Elche
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Levante vs Elche
- 23 January 2026Levante 3–2 ElcheLa Liga
- 29 August 2025Elche 2–0 LevanteLa Liga
- 10 May 2025Elche 1–3 LevanteSegunda División
- 16 November 2024Levante 1–1 ElcheSegunda División
- 10 August 2024Elche 0–1 LevanteFriendlies Clubs
- 24 March 2024Levante 3–2 ElcheSegunda División
Leading scorers: Levante and Elche
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Levante v Elche has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Levante's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Levante win45%▲ +2
- Draw27%=
- Elche win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levante the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Levante against 1.21 for Elche. Levante's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.04 for Elche.
How the model reaches 45% for Levante to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Levante to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Levante's ratings add 1 point and Elche's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Levante's ratings45%+1
- Elche's ratings45%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Levante at home · Elche away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LevanteElche
Levante are 17th after 12 La Liga matches (between 8th and 20th so far); Elche are 18th after 12 (between 7th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Levante 12, Elche 12.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Elche have let in 5 there.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Levante have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Levante
- vs Racing Santander27 Nov · La Ligawin 56%
- at Rayo Vallecano6 Dec · La Ligawin 30%
- vs Alaves13 Dec · La Ligawin 45%
- at Getafe20 Dec · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Valencia3 Jan · La Ligawin 48%
Elche
- vs Atletico Madrid28 Nov · La Ligawin 24%
- at Osasuna6 Dec · La Ligawin 35%
- vs Sevilla13 Dec · La Ligawin 43%
- at Alaves20 Dec · La Ligawin 30%
- at Malaga3 Jan · La Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.