Barcelona
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Barcelona 2–1 Villarreal
The model makes it 62% Barcelona, 21% draw, 17% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Barcelona 2.50, Villarreal 1.09.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Barcelona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Barcelona's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Villarreal's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Barcelona are top on 33 points from 12 games; Villarreal are 8th on 15 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Atletico Madrid.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Getafe.
- Last 6 meetings: Barcelona 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Barcelona 4–1 Villarreal.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barcelona vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Barcelona vs Villarreal
Barcelona
La Liga
- W2-1away to Atletico Madrid8 November 2026
- W6-1Alaves31 October 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Real Betis17 October 2026
- W3-0Getafe10 October 2026
Villarreal
La Liga
- W2-0Getafe8 November 2026
- L0-1Espanyol30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Valencia24 October 2026
- D0-0Elche17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
What these results say
- Barcelona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Barcelona had three goals or more.
- Barcelona won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Barcelona
Chance to win the league · 50% today
Villarreal
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Villarreal
- 28 February 2026Barcelona 4–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 21 December 2025Villarreal 0–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 18 May 2025Barcelona 2–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- 22 September 2024Villarreal 1–5 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 27 January 2024Barcelona 3–5 VillarrealLa Liga
- 27 August 2023Villarreal 3–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Villarreal
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha153
- Lamine Yamal108
- Fermín75
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barcelona a 49.8% chance of the title and Villarreal 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Barcelona v Villarreal has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 64% / 20% / 16% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 62% / 21% / 17%: the biggest move is Barcelona's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Barcelona win62%▼ −2
- Draw21%▲ +1
- Villarreal win17%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Barcelona against 1.09 for Villarreal. Barcelona's attack/defence rating is 1.78/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.87 for Villarreal.
How the model reaches 62% for Barcelona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barcelona to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Barcelona's ratings add 9 points and Villarreal's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Barcelona's ratings54%+9
- Villarreal's ratings62%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Barcelona at home · Villarreal away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BarcelonaVillarreal
Barcelona are 1st after 12 La Liga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Villarreal are 8th after 12 (between 4th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Barcelona 12, Villarreal 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Barcelona
- at Sabah FA25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 77%
- at Deportivo La Coruna29 Nov · La Ligawin 55%
- vs Atletico Madrid2 Dec · La Ligawin 52%
- vs Celta Vigo6 Dec · La Ligawin 69%
- vs Manchester City8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
Villarreal
- at Slavia Praha25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 31%
- at Celta Vigo29 Nov · La Ligawin 38%
- vs Real Sociedad6 Dec · La Ligawin 51%
- vs Sabah FA8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 61%
- vs Rayo Vallecano13 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.