Espanyol
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna
The model makes it 40% Espanyol, 29% draw, 31% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Espanyol 1.33, Deportivo La Coruna 1.10.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Espanyol's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Deportivo La Coruna's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Espanyol are 16th on 8 points from 9 games; Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 11 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Espanyol are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Atletico Madrid.
- Deportivo La Coruna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Levante.
- Last 6 meetings: Espanyol 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 February 2018, ended Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 Espanyol.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Espanyol at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
La Liga
- L0-1Atletico Madrid17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
- L1-3Elche18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
What these results say
- Espanyol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 23 February 2018Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 24 September 2017Espanyol 4–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 7 May 2017Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 6 January 2017Espanyol 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 20 February 2016Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 27 September 2015Deportivo La Coruna 3–0 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Espanyol carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.81 for Deportivo La Coruna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Espanyol and 1.10 for Deportivo La Coruna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Espanyol rate 0.81 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo La Coruna rate 0.93 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Deportivo La Coruna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Espanyol the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Espanyol against 1.10 for Deportivo La Coruna. Espanyol's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.01 for Deportivo La Coruna.
How the model reaches 40% for Espanyol to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Espanyol to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Espanyol's ratings take away 6 points and Deportivo La Coruna's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Espanyol's ratings38%−6
- Deportivo La Coruna's ratings40%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Espanyol at home · Deportivo La Coruna away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EspanyolDeportivo La Coruna
Espanyol are 16th after 9 La Liga matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Deportivo La Coruna are 9th after 9 (between 4th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Espanyol 9, Deportivo La Coruna 9.
Espanyol score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Deportivo La Coruna have let in 1 there.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Espanyol have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Espanyol
- at Athletic Club22 Nov · La Ligawin 26%
- vs Getafe29 Nov · La Ligawin 40%
- at Alaves6 Dec · La Ligawin 27%
Deportivo La Coruna
- at Alaves22 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Barcelona29 Nov · La Ligawin 19%
- at Racing Santander6 Dec · La Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.