Real Sociedad
vs
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
The model makes it 57% Real Sociedad, 22% draw, 21% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.36, Rayo Vallecano 1.25.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Real Sociedad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Real Sociedad's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Rayo Vallecano's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 854 matches.
Key facts
- Real Sociedad are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; Rayo Vallecano are 17th on 9 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win away to Malaga.
- Rayo Vallecano are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Elche.
- Last 6 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 57% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- W5-2away to Malaga18 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- L0-3Elche24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
- Real Sociedad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
- 26 April 2026Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 5 October 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 16 March 2025Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 16 January 2025Real Sociedad 3–1 Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey
- 18 August 2024Real Sociedad 1–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 27 January 2024Real Sociedad 0–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić30
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello71
- Álvaro García32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Sociedad carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.75 for Rayo Vallecano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad rate 1.36 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rayo Vallecano rate 0.88 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Sociedad a 0.2% chance of the title and Rayo Vallecano 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1.36/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.07 for Rayo Vallecano.
How the model reaches 57% for Real Sociedad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Real Sociedad's ratings add 7 points and Rayo Vallecano's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Real Sociedad's ratings51%+7
- Rayo Vallecano's ratings57%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Sociedad at home · Rayo Vallecano away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad are 5th after 9 La Liga matches (between 5th and 20th so far); Rayo Vallecano are 17th after 9 (between 8th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Sociedad 9, Rayo Vallecano 9.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Rayo Vallecano have let in 4 there.
Rayo Vallecano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad
- at Racing Santander22 Nov · La Ligawin 50%
- at Crystal Palace26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 42%
Rayo Vallecano
- vs Valencia22 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- at Real Betis29 Nov · La Ligawin 18%
- vs Levante6 Dec · La Ligawin 40%
- at Villarreal13 Dec · La Ligawin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.