Celta Vigo
vs
Levante
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 1–0 Levante
The model makes it 47% Celta Vigo, 27% draw, 26% Levante — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.60, Levante 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Celta Vigo's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Levante's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 854 matches.
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 9th on 11 points from 9 games; Levante are 13th on 10 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Alaves.
- Levante are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Athletic Club.
- Last 6 meetings: Celta Vigo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Celta Vigo 2–3 Levante.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Levante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Levante
Celta Vigo
La Liga
- W2-1Alaves18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026
- W5-0Racing Santander19 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
Levante
La Liga
- W3-1Athletic Club21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
- D3-3Sevilla12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Levante.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 13 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Levante
- 12 May 2026Celta Vigo 2–3 LevanteLa Liga
- 2 November 2025Levante 1–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 February 2022Celta Vigo 1–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 21 September 2021Levante 0–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 30 April 2021Celta Vigo 2–0 LevanteLa Liga
- 26 October 2020Levante 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Levante
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
- Iván Romero30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.82 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.06 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.88 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 1.05 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta Vigo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.06 for Levante. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.12 for Levante.
How the model reaches 47% for Celta Vigo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Celta Vigo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Celta Vigo's ratings change nothing and Levante's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Celta Vigo's ratings44%±0
- Levante's ratings47%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Levante away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Celta VigoLevante
Celta Vigo are 9th after 9 La Liga matches (between 8th and 17th so far); Levante are 13th after 9 (between 8th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Celta Vigo 9, Levante 9.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Levante have let in 4 there.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- at Real Madrid22 Nov · La Ligawin 14%
- vs Bournemouth26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 43%
Levante
- vs Elche22 Nov · La Ligawin 43%
- vs Racing Santander29 Nov · La Ligawin 59%
- at Rayo Vallecano6 Dec · La Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.