Racing Santander
vs
Real Sociedad
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Racing Santander 1–2 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 29% Racing Santander, 22% draw, 49% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 3.45, 4.55 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.79, Real Sociedad 2.48.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Real Sociedad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Racing Santander's rating is built from 12 La Liga matches and Real Sociedad's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Racing Santander are 10th on 14 points from 12 games; Real Sociedad are 5th on 22 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Racing Santander have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Malaga.
- Real Sociedad have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rayo Vallecano.
- Last 5 meetings: Real Sociedad 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Real Sociedad 1–1 Racing Santander.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad
Racing Santander
La Liga
- W2-1away to Malaga7 November 2026
- L0-3Real Madrid1 November 2026
- W2-1Espanyol24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Osasuna18 October 2026
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- W1-0Rayo Vallecano8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Athletic Club1 November 2026
- W2-1Levante25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Malaga18 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
What these results say
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
- Real Sociedad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Racing Santander
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
Real Sociedad
Chance to finish in the top four · 24% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad
- 18 July 2026Real Sociedad 1–1 Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2012Real Sociedad 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 18 December 2011Racing Santander 0–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 20 March 2011Racing Santander 2–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 6 November 2010Real Sociedad 1–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Real Sociedad
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Racing Santander a 0% chance of the title and Real Sociedad 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Racing Santander against 2.48 for Real Sociedad. Racing Santander's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/1.12 for Real Sociedad.
How the model reaches 49% for Real Sociedad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Racing Santander's ratings add 10 points and Real Sociedad's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- Racing Santander's ratings40%+10
- Real Sociedad's ratings49%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Racing Santander at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Racing SantanderReal Sociedad
Racing Santander are 10th after 12 La Liga matches (between 3rd and 16th so far); Real Sociedad are 5th after 12 (between 5th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Racing Santander 12, Real Sociedad 12.
Racing Santander score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 2 there.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Racing Santander have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Racing Santander
- at Levante27 Nov · La Ligawin 22%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna6 Dec · La Ligawin 34%
- at Real Betis13 Dec · La Ligawin 12%
- at Sevilla20 Dec · La Ligawin 22%
- vs Athletic Club3 Jan · La Ligawin 31%
Real Sociedad
- at Crystal Palace26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- vs Sevilla29 Nov · La Ligawin 54%
- vs Real Madrid2 Dec · La Ligawin 22%
- at Villarreal6 Dec · La Ligawin 26%
- vs Torreense10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 74%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.