Celta Vigo
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 0–1 Villarreal
The model makes it 32% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 38% Villarreal — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.08, Villarreal 1.24.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Villarreal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Celta Vigo's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Villarreal's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 11th on 13 points from 12 games; Villarreal are 8th on 15 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Celta Vigo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Levante.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Getafe.
- Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Villarreal 2–1 Celta Vigo.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
Villarreal at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
Celta Vigo
La Liga
- D0-0Levante8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Rayo Vallecano31 October 2026
- D0-0Real Betis25 October 2026
- W2-1Alaves18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026
Villarreal
La Liga
- W2-0Getafe8 November 2026
- L0-1Espanyol30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Valencia24 October 2026
- D0-0Elche17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
- 26 April 2026Villarreal 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 31 August 2025Celta Vigo 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 23 April 2025Celta Vigo 3–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 26 August 2024Villarreal 4–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 5 May 2024Celta Vigo 3–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 20 December 2023Villarreal 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.24 for Villarreal. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.87 for Villarreal.
How the model reaches 38% for Villarreal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Villarreal to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Celta Vigo's ratings add 4 points and Villarreal's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Celta Vigo's ratings33%+4
- Villarreal's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Villarreal away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Celta VigoVillarreal
Celta Vigo are 11th after 12 La Liga matches (between 8th and 17th so far); Villarreal are 8th after 12 (between 4th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Celta Vigo 12, Villarreal 12.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Villarreal have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- at Barcelona6 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
- at Marseille10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 22%
- at Espanyol13 Dec · La Ligawin 29%
Villarreal
- vs Real Sociedad6 Dec · La Ligawin 51%
- vs Sabah FA8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 61%
- vs Rayo Vallecano13 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.