Osasuna
vs
Athletic Club
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Osasuna 1–0 Athletic Club
The model makes it 36% Osasuna, 29% draw, 35% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Osasuna 1.24, Athletic Club 1.22.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Osasuna and Athletic Club are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Osasuna's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Athletic Club's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Osasuna are 10th on 11 points from 9 games; Athletic Club are 13th on 9 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Osasuna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Racing Santander.
- Athletic Club are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Levante.
- Last 6 meetings: Athletic Club 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Athletic Club 1–0 Osasuna.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Osasuna at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Osasuna
La Liga
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
Athletic Club
La Liga
- L1-3away to Levante21 October 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
- D0-0Alaves19 September 2026
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
What these results say
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Athletic Club
- 21 April 2026Athletic Club 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Osasuna 1–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 30 March 2025Athletic Club 0–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 16 January 2025Athletic Club 2–3 OsasunaCopa del Rey
- 21 December 2024Osasuna 1–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 3 August 2024Athletic Club 2–1 OsasunaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Athletic Club
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir70
Athletic Club
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Osasuna carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.82 for Athletic Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Osasuna and 1.22 for Athletic Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Osasuna rate 0.83 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Athletic Club rate 0.86 and 0.92.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Osasuna against 1.22 for Athletic Club. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.92 for Athletic Club.
How the model reaches 36% for Osasuna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Osasuna to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Osasuna's ratings take away 9 points and Athletic Club's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Osasuna's ratings35%−9
- Athletic Club's ratings36%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Osasuna at home · Athletic Club away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
OsasunaAthletic Club
Osasuna are 10th after 9 La Liga matches (between 4th and 15th so far); Athletic Club are 13th after 8 (between 7th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Osasuna 9, Athletic Club 8.
Osasuna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Athletic Club have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Osasuna
- vs Malaga22 Nov · La Ligawin 50%
- at Valencia29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
- vs Elche6 Dec · La Ligawin 38%
Athletic Club
- vs Espanyol22 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- at Malaga29 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
- vs Real Madrid6 Dec · La Ligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.