La Liga

1. Barcelona — 27 points from 10 played (9 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost), 40 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +29. Form, oldest first: W W W W L.
2. Atletico Madrid — 25 points from 10 played (8 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 20 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +12. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
3. Real Madrid — 24 points from 10 played (8 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost), 25 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +15. Form, oldest first: W L W W W.
4. Real Betis — 20 points from 10 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 16 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W D W L D.
5. Real Sociedad — 19 points from 10 played (6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 19 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W W W W.
6. Sevilla — 17 points from 10 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 16 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L D L W.
7. Alaves — 12 points from 10 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 14 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L D L L D.
8. Athletic Club — 12 points from 9 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 12 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D D D L W.
9. Celta Vigo — 12 points from 10 played (2 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost), 10 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W D W D.
10. Villarreal — 12 points from 10 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 15 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W W L D W.
11. Deportivo La Coruna — 11 points from 10 played (2 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L D L D L.
12. Osasuna — 11 points from 10 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 10 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L D L W L.
13. Racing Santander — 11 points from 10 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 26 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: L L D L W.
14. Levante — 10 points from 10 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 16 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L D D W L.
15. Elche — 10 points from 10 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 14 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L W D D W.
16. Rayo Vallecano — 9 points from 9 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 12 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L W D D L.
17. Getafe — 9 points from 10 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 5 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L W L D L.
18. Espanyol — 8 points from 10 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 12 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
19. Valencia — 6 points from 10 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 7 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: W L D D L.
20. Malaga — 5 points from 10 played (0 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 7 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L D L D.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-29, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 9 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Espanyol — bottom-three risk down 0.8, to 21.2%.
• Malaga — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 79.3%.
• Rayo Vallecano — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 23.1%.
• Alaves — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 8.3%.
• Athletic Club — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 1.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 280 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-10-29, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Barcelona — projected to finish on 89.8 points, from 27 after 10 played. Wins it 55.1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 99.3%, bottom three 0%.
2. Real Madrid — projected to finish on 87.1 points, from 24 after 10 played. Wins it 35.5%, finishes top four 98.8%, bottom three 0%.
3. Atletico Madrid — projected to finish on 78 points, from 25 after 10 played. Wins it 8.2%, finishes top four 86.5%, bottom three 0%.
4. Real Betis — projected to finish on 69.3 points, from 20 after 10 played. Wins it 1%, finishes top four 55.7%, bottom three 0%.
5. Real Sociedad — projected to finish on 62.5 points, from 19 after 10 played. Wins it 0.2%, finishes top four 24.5%, bottom three 0.1%.
6. Villarreal — projected to finish on 60.1 points, from 12 after 10 played. Wins it 0.1%, finishes top four 16.9%, bottom three 0.2%.
7. Sevilla — projected to finish on 54.5 points, from 17 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 6.7%, bottom three 1.6%.
8. Athletic Club — projected to finish on 52.8 points, from 12 after 9 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 4.4%, bottom three 1.7%.
9. Celta Vigo — projected to finish on 50 points, from 12 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2.5%, bottom three 3.2%.
10. Elche — projected to finish on 49.2 points, from 10 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2%, bottom three 4.2%.
11. Deportivo La Coruna — projected to finish on 46.9 points, from 11 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.6%, bottom three 6.6%.
12. Levante — projected to finish on 46.5 points, from 10 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1%, bottom three 8%.
13. Alaves — projected to finish on 45.9 points, from 12 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.9%, bottom three 8.3%.
14. Rayo Vallecano — projected to finish on 40.4 points, from 9 after 9 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 23.1%.
15. Espanyol — projected to finish on 40.1 points, from 8 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 21.2%.
16. Osasuna — projected to finish on 39.5 points, from 11 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 28%.
17. Valencia — projected to finish on 37.4 points, from 6 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 33.7%.
18. Racing Santander — projected to finish on 37 points, from 11 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 39.4%.
19. Getafe — projected to finish on 36 points, from 9 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 41.4%.
20. Malaga — projected to finish on 27.9 points, from 5 after 10 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 79.3%.

Top scorers

1. Raphinha (Barcelona) — 13 goals, 3 assists.
2. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) — 11 goals, 2 assists.
3. M. Zabiri (Racing Santander) — 8 goals.
4. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) — 8 goals, 6 assists.
5. Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
6. A. Budimir (Osasuna) — 7 goals.
7. Roberto Fernández (Espanyol) — 6 goals.
8. Fer Niño (Elche) — 6 goals.
9. Álex Baena (Atletico Madrid) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
10. P. Aubameyang (Deportivo La Coruna) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
11. Brugui (Levante) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
12. L. Boyé (Alaves) — 5 goals.
13. Fermín (Barcelona) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
14. Adrián Niño Heredia (Malaga) — 4 goals.
15. M. Díaz (Alaves) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
16. J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
17. Álvaro García (Rayo Vallecano) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
18. J. David (Atletico Madrid) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
19. Isaac (Sevilla) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
20. Iván Romero (Levante) — 3 goals.